What is the probability that I will die tomorrow. What will you die from? what is the probability of dying in an accident or from AIDS

From plane crashes to lightning, here are the 25 things statistically that cause the most deaths in people:

25. Fireworks

In the United States, about 10,000 people go to the emergency room for firework-related injuries. Chance to die from fireworks: 1 in 615448.

24. Tsunami


Naturally, the risk of dying from a tsunami greatly depends on where you live, but in terms of statistics, the chance is 1 in 500,000.

23 Asteroid Impact


In the past, it was thought that the chance of death from an asteroid impact was about 1 in 20,000. Now, thanks to the development of science, we have learned that the chance is actually 1 in 500,000. Although even this probability is quite high.

22. Dog attack


The chance of being torn apart by man's best friend is 1 in 147,717.

21. Earthquake


Again, living in an area of ​​high tectonic activity will greatly increase your risk. However, in general, the chance of dying in an earthquake is 1 in 131,890.

20. Poison bite


At a 1 in 100,000 chance, the risk of death from a bee sting is twice that of a dog sting.

19. Lightning


Every year around a quarter of a million people around the world are struck by lightning. The chances of dying from such an event are 1 in 83,930.

18. Tornado


Living in the US or India increases the chance of death, but overall it is about 1 in 60,000.

17. Death penalty


Yes, if you do not kill and do not commit high treason, the chance of death under such circumstances will greatly decrease, especially if you do not live in China, North Korea, Yemen, Iran or the USA, then the death penalty does not threaten you. Still, the chance is 1 in 58,618.

16. Flood


Floods, being one of the most common and dangerous natural disasters, claim more lives annually than any other disasters on this list. Chance of death: 1 in 30,000.

15. Plane crash


Flying in airplanes is much (as you will see below, hundreds of times) safer than traveling in a car. The chance of death is 1 in 20,000.

14. Death by drowning


Drowning is the third most common accidental death according to the World Health Organization. Thus, hundreds of thousands of people die every year. Chance: 1 in 8,942.

13. Electric shock


If lightning deaths and executions are included, electric shock causes about 1,000 deaths per year in the US. Of these deaths, the most common are those related to safety at work. Chance of death: 1 in 5,000.

12. Bicycle


Usually, when someone dies while riding a bicycle, that death is caused by a motorist. The chance is 1 in 4,717.

11. Forces of nature


This item includes lightning, tornadoes, floods, tsunamis, earthquakes and any other natural disaster. It is interesting to know what is the chance that you will die as a result of the wrath of mother nature? 1 to 3 357.

10. Fire or smoke


Roughly 50-80 percent of fire-related deaths are due to smoke inhalation rather than burns, but overall, in the US alone, fires claim thousands of lives each year. Chance to die: 1 in 1,116.

9. Death by gunshot wound


Living in the United States, Guatemala, Brazil, or South Africa increases the chances of dying under these circumstances, but the overall chance is 1 in 325.

8. Fall


If this seems harmless to you, you must be young. It is the leading cause of death among the elderly population of the Earth. Chance: 1 in 246.

7. Intentional self-harm


Every 40 seconds in the world someone commits suicide and every year about 1 million people die from it. Chance: 1 in 121.

6. Car accident


It's the most dangerous act we regularly do, and about 50,000 Americans die each year in car crashes. Chance of dying: 1 in 100.

5. Accidental injury


This collective category is responsible for about 30 million emergency room visits each year, and about 100,000 people die each year as a result of such circumstances. Chance: 1 in 36.

4. Stroke


For people living in developed countries, one of the four remaining items is what they will eventually die from. The chance of dying from a stroke is 1 in 23.

3. Cancer


If a person lives long enough, cancer becomes almost as inevitable as death and taxes. Chance: 1 in 7.

2. Heart disease


Many experts believe that heart disease is the leading cause of death in the world. Chance to die: 1 in 5.

1. Hayflick limit


Even if we assume that a person will not get sick and will not die a violent death, as it turns out, our cells can divide a limited number of times, after which they will disintegrate anyway. This amount is known as the Hayflick limit. Although modern research in genetics may extend this process, according to some sources, the current maximum human life limit is 125 years.

Why do I risk dying every day?

This is a question from Rude Austin of Petersham, New South Wales.

Each of us is in danger of dying every day. It doesn't matter how carefully we try to protect ourselves from danger, because much that we come into contact with can be fatal. Based on information provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and a book by Les Krantz What Are Our Chances: Everything You Hoped For Or Feared From A To I, the probability of causing damage to our health in everyday life was calculated.

If you were born in present-day Australia, you would probably live to about 75.7 years (a little more for women, a little less for men).

The chances that you will be struck by lightning today are 1:250,000,000, and that this will happen in your lifetime is 1:9100.

The chances of you being attacked by a shark today are astronomically small. There is a 1:1,000,000 chance that she will attack you during your lifetime. However, if this happens, you will only be able to escape 30% of the time.

The probability that you will die this year is 1:119. Cause of death can be heart disease (1:3), cancer (1:5), stroke (1:14), lung disease (1:29), pneumonia (1:32), diabetes (1:58) and liver disease (1:83).

The probability of dying in a car accident is 1:125. The chance of dying in a car crash on your next possible trip is about 1 in 4,000,000. The chance of dying from being hit by a car is highest at only 6 years old. At the age of six, about 1 in 12,500 boys and 1 in 25,000 girls are killed by cars.

The probability of crashing on the next plane flight is less than 1:4,600,000.

The probability of dying in<этом году при пожаре в собственном доме равна 1:100 000. того, что вы будете искалечены, - 1:1400. Вероятность пожара в вашем доме в этом году равна 1:200, и если такое произойдет - 3:10, что причиной пожара послужило курение. Если пожар все‑таки случился, в 1 из 77 случаев вы получите травму или ожог.

The probability of dying in a fall is 1:200,000. If you are over 80, the probability increases to 1:2,000, and if you are over 90, it is 1:570.

The odds of you having a brain tumor this year is 1:25,000. But if that happens, the odds of it being malignant is 4:1. If for any reason you have to undergo brain surgery, your chances of survival are 33:1.

If you've had a heart attack or stroke, you have a 1:3 chance of making a full recovery, a 1:3 chance of permanent damage to your health, and a 1:3 chance of dying.

The chances of you committing suicide this year is 1:580. If you try to do this, the probability of success is 1:14. Over your lifetime, the chance of successfully killing yourself is 1:73. - The chance that you will need a heart transplant in your lifetime is 1:3000. If you need a heart donor, the chance of finding one is 1:1 and the chance of a successful operation is 7:10. If it was successful, then the chances that you will live another 5 years with a new heart are 1:1.

The chance of needing a liver transplant in a lifetime is 1:2000; the probability of a kidney transplant is 1:365; the probability of corneal transplantation is 1:95.

The probability that you will go blind or your vision will deteriorate dramatically is 7:1000.

You can start smoking 4 times out of 10. If you become addicted, then 7 out of 10 times you will try to quit smoking and 3 out of 10 times you will succeed.

The rate of skin cancer in Australia is the highest in the world. There is a 1 in 460 chance of being diagnosed this year. The likelihood that this year you will be diagnosed with a deadly form of skin cancer - malignant melanoma. - is equal to 1:6805, and the fact that this year you will die from it is 1:22407. If you are diagnosed with malignant melanoma, then the probability of dying from it is 1:3.

There is a 3:10 chance that you will have mental health problems at some point in your life.

In 1 out of 8 cases you may become an alcoholic, in 7 out of 9 you will suffer from a serious phobia, in 1 out of 16 you will suffer from major depression, and in 1 out of 50 you will be diagnosed with a mental deterioration disorder.

The chance of you getting schizophrenia is 1:167.

The lifetime probability of contracting tuberculosis is 1:11,000.

You have a very low chance of getting malaria, but if you do get malaria, you have a 1 in 40 chance of dying from it, especially if treatment is delayed.

The chance of getting leprosy this year is 1:548,000.

The probability of dying as a result of the fact that the Earth will be destroyed by a meteorite colliding with it is 1:9000.

Most of us live with these risks, yet we get out of bed every morning and take a shower no matter what. And finally, the probability of dying in the shower this year is 1:685,000 25, 26 .

Fatal diseases are much more common among men. Chronic diseases are much more common among women.

According to scientists from the University of Massachusetts, the probability of being in a plane crash is 1 to 8,000,000. This means that there is 1 air crash for every 8,000,000 flights. This indicator is much better than the probability of getting into a car accident. Moreover, the probability of dying on the way to the airport by car or public transport is much higher than getting into a plane crash. In the article - Entertaining statistics of air crashes, it is described in detail in which phases of air travel there are more chances of getting into a plane crash.

Why do plane crashes happen?

Most disasters are human-caused. About 46% of all disasters are due to human error. And not only the crew in the air, but also ground services, for example, poor-quality maintenance of the aircraft before the flight, the wrong amount of fuel, or incorrect dispatcher commands.

Only 26% of accidents happen due to a technical malfunction. The remaining percentages fall in approximately equal parts on the weather, on the condition of the runway at the airport. Less than 1% of air crashes are due to terrorism. Interestingly, 3% of air crashes occur due to fires.

If you have never flown, then you probably have thoughts and questions about the safety of air transport. In this article we will talk about the safety of flying on airplanes. We will consider it from the point of view of the probability of getting into a plane crash. There is no exact data, we have collected everything bit by bit and do not pretend to be a scientific article, but the article can help form a general idea.

The fact that the plane is one of the safest modes of transport. According to statistics, you are more likely to get into an accident by car than by plane. But the fact is that you can be driving a car yourself - which means you are in control of the situation, and only pilots can be at the helm of an airplane, which most of us are not. So there is a problem in terms of the issue of airplanes - the traveler himself is not in control of the situation, and this adds additional fear.

You should not be afraid, as they say - bad thoughts attract bad events, good thoughts attract good events. It is rather a matter of religion and faith. In this regard, it is worth knowing what cabalism studies. Thanks to her, you can learn more about the sources of harmony and joy. So know that compared to a car, the chances of getting into an accident on a plane are less.

Percentage Probability

Speaking mathematically, we express the probability of getting into a plane crash as a percentage. After analyzing several thousand flights that were made, we came to the conclusion that out of several thousand flights, only one flight faced big problems, and even then - not in every case it ended in disaster.

The chance of being in a fatal plane crash is less than 0.01%. This is a negligible probability. Of course, it all depends on which airline you fly with, how many years your aircraft has been in operation, etc. It is not possible to bring statistics on companies, as there are a lot of them.

We will advise only one thing - try to choose the most famous and reliable airlines. Try to fly on planes whose age does not exceed 7 years. Of course, there are reliable planes and older ones, but judging by the statistics, young planes from well-known airlines are less likely to get into unusual situations.

Many people are sure that the chances of escaping, and a plane crash are close to zero, so they do not consider it necessary to carefully study the safety instructions. Although, for example, the recent crash of Asiana Airlines Flight 217 proves that if the evacuation rules are followed, the number of victims can be significantly reduced: in the accident at San Francisco International Airport, 305 of the 307 people on board were saved. Here are a few rules, following which, you are more likely to survive in a plane crash.

1. Consider a travel suit

Going on a trip, choose clothes so that you are most comfortable in it in case of an emergency.

“Imagine running out of a burning plane,” advises Cynthia Corbett of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). “For example, you should not wear high-heeled shoes or light slippers - they are uncomfortable to run in.”

Long sleeves and pants can protect against shrapnel and burns: according to experts from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), 68% of the victims are fires that occur after accidents.

“It is important that during emergency situations, shoes do not fall off your feet, and the exposed surfaces of the body are protected by a dense fabric, like denim,” Corbett added.

2. Choose a seat in the cabin when buying a ticket

According to Popular Mechanics magazine, the safest seats are in the tail section of the cabin.

After analyzing the fatal air crashes that have occurred over the past 40 years, experts cite the following statistics: on average, those sitting in the back of the cabin are 40% more likely to survive. Also try to position yourself close to the emergency exit and closer to the aisle.

Professor Ed Galea, a fire safety specialist at the University of Greenwich in England, found that surviving passengers usually sit within five rows of emergency exits: he says that during an emergency it is better to sit closer to the aisle than at the window or in the middle.

3. Takeoff and landing

Experts say that the most dangerous time is the first three minutes after takeoff and eight minutes before landing: force majeure often occurs precisely at these stages of the flight - at this time it is better not to take off your shoes and not lose sight of the two nearest emergency exits.

Place hand luggage under the seat of the passenger sitting in front - it will help to avoid injuries, as it will not allow you to slip under the seat in front, because leg fractures are quite common among victims of air crashes.

If a crash or emergency landing is unavoidable, stay calm and don't panic. Take the so-called “survival position”: with your palms crossed, put them on the back of the seat in front, then press your forehead to your palms - this is more likely to survive in an accident, but if there is no front seat, lean forward and hug your knees with your hands.

Also remove all sharp and angular objects like pens and keys from your pockets: in emergency conditions, even a regular comb can cause harm.

4. The 90 second rule

Remember, if after the plane crash you can leave the cabin within 90 seconds, the chances of escape increase significantly: some passengers in a state of panic are not even able to unfasten their seat belt - their bodies are then found sitting in chairs.

In an interview with WebMD, Cynthia Corbett said:

“It is important to know how to behave in an emergency, even if there are no instructions from the crew: it happens that people just sit and wait to be told what to do, and the situation worsens in the meantime.”

In the accident with Flight 217, most of the victims were avoided because the victims were able to quickly evacuate from the aircraft.

“If anyone had lingered, it could have been a lot worse,” said John Hansman, head of the International Air Traffic Center, while Corbett adds: “Don’t try to find and collect your luggage, it can take precious time.”

5. No more dangerous than subway escalators

Transportation safety experts are encouraging: according to NTSB statistics, only one in 1.2 million commercial flights has an accident: aircraft crews are carefully working out measures to prevent various emergencies, new safe non-toxic materials are being developed and more advanced fire-fighting systems for winged vehicles are being developed.

The chance of dying in a plane crash is 1 in 11,000,000, while, for example, in a car accident - 1 in 5,000, so now it is much safer for a person to fly than drive a car.

“Being aboard an airliner is no more risky than going down the subway on an escalator,” John Hansman told ABC News.

“I believe air travel is the safest way to get around,” Corbett concluded. - But during the flight, we must not forget about safety and the rules of conduct on board. Don't be afraid to fly, just follow the instructions carefully."

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calculate, what mode of transport is the safest, not so easy. To build a beautiful and visual graph, at least two indicators are required - the number of dead or injured, as well as the number of people who use this type of transport. For air, rail and water transport, finding this data is not difficult, because thanks to tickets, each person is taken into account. But there are problems with road transport. Tracking the movement of the average Russian from work, to work and to the store is not possible - after all, no one passes registration to leave on the threshold of their home.

Our transport safety rating according to statistics for 2018 was compiled using various sources - from the data of the National Union of Insurers, which keep statistics on registered insured events from 2012 to the present, to data on traffic accidents on the Rosstat website.

> 200 deaths per 1.6 billion km

Although the number of motorcycle accidents has decreased by more than 70% since 2005, the motorcycle still remains one of the most dangerous modes of transport. According to statistics, it turns out that every 1.6 billion kilometers of the way are paid for by the lives of more than two hundred drivers and their passengers.

A motorcycle, like another two-wheeled vehicle - a bicycle - is characterized by increased vulnerability, so accidents involving motorcyclists are highly likely to end sadly. The reason is non-compliance with the rules of the road, and, surprisingly, the fundamental refusal of some drivers to use a helmet.

5.75 people per 1.6 billion km

In second place in the number of road accidents are private cars. In total, at least 5.75 people die in 1.6 billion kilometers of the way.

The reasons are both the unwillingness of drivers to comply with the rules of the road, and the condition of the roadway, the increased wear and tear of the vehicle fleet due to the crisis and the deterioration in the purchasing power of the population. And also (due to the increase in the average age of life) and the aging of drivers. All these factors together serve as a guarantee that road transport in Russia will not be safe for a long time to come.

9.4 deaths per 1 million passengers

Among air transport, the greatest danger to human life is not international, but intercity. Especially if a person in a helicopter is forced to go to those parts where even the notorious Makar prefers not to drive his calves. Perhaps this is the reason for such a high number of casualties among helicopter passengers. For every 1 million people, at least 9.4 are injured. You will have to fall from a great height, and, with a high degree of probability, the injuries will be incompatible with life.

5 dead per 1.5 billion km

Fixed-route taxis are by no means the safest form of transport in Russia. According to statistics, every 1.5 billion kilometers traveled by a minibus are paid for with five human lives. Among the reasons can be named both the work of drivers for wear and tear, and the design miscalculations of minibuses, the condition of the roads, the unwillingness to follow the rules of the road and drunk driving.

2.84 injured per 1 million transported

In 2018, there were several major accidents involving intercity buses, including a tragic accident in the Voronezh region, when two buses collided, five people died and 17 were injured. injured or killed at least 2.84. In total, in 2018, trips on intercity buses brought death to more than 600 passengers, and more than 13 thousand people were injured.

2.3 accidents per 1 million passengers

This category includes both international ships and domestic river carriers. In total, in 2018, 62 accidents occurred during sea and river travel, which ended tragically for five people. In general, according to NSS statistics, for every million passengers carried, there are 2.3 accidents.

Passengers on sea and river vessels are threatened not only by the elements of water, but also by fire. One of the most common causes of transport accidents is a sudden outbreak of fire on board a ship, usually caused by a faulty electrical wiring. This is not surprising, given that the Russian domestic fleet is in a deplorable state, and almost a third of the ships have celebrated 40 years of operation.

Probability of dying: 1:11,000,000

The safest transport in the world, however, in Russia it is not possible to obtain accurate statistics on the number of accidents per number of passengers. The data of the National Association of Insurers, on which we relied when assessing the risk of other modes of transport, are not available for them. The reason is the peculiarities of the insurance system in Russia; most air transport companies carry their passengers not only within the country, but also abroad. Therefore, they use international insurance policies.

That's why the plane is the safest mode of transport: according to statistics, the odds of dying in an accident on board an aircraft are 1 in 11 million. For comparison: the chances of being struck by lightning while walking in a thunderstorm are 16 times higher!

0.17 accidents per 1 million passengers

This category includes both intercity and international trains, as well as ordinary commuter trains. In general, for 2018, the statistics for Russian Railways look excellent - for almost the entire year, from January to November, only seven accidents were registered. Unfortunately, there were no deaths - one person died. In general, there are no more than 0.17 accidents per 1 million passengers.

More and more people prefer to use one of the safest modes of transport, and this cannot be explained by price alone. After all, for some destinations, the cost of plane and train tickets is almost equal. According to the Russian Railways website, in 2018, almost 8% more passengers were transported on long-distance trains than last year. And the growth in the number of passengers on electric trains amounted to almost 3%.

0.09 cases per million transported

Trolleybus is in second place in terms of safety among modes of transport in Russia. According to NSS statistics, there are only 0.09 accidents for every million passengers carried. Most of them are banal “stumbled and fell”.

The reasons for the low injury rate of a trolleybus are very simple - its volume and weight, as well as its low speed. In a collision, for example, with a car, the car will have much worse. And the passengers of the trolleybus will get off with light bruises.

0.04 affected out of 1,000,000 people

The safest transport according to statistics for 2018 in terms of the ratio of the number of accidents to the number of passengers. In total, out of one million arrivals from point A to point B, no more than 0.04 people are injured. In addition to safety, the tram has many advantages:

• it moves more smoothly than a car and even a trolleybus;
• less noisy;
• completely autonomous from traffic jams (unless, of course, motorists are trying to drive along the tracks);
• of all urban transport causes the least harm to the environment.

Unfortunately, trams are gradually disappearing from small towns in Russia. The reason is the limited local budget, which is simply unable to support a separate line. In total, over the past twenty years, the number of trams has decreased by more than 35%. Does this mean that the safest mode of transport will gradually disappear from the urban landscape?