Doomsday clock what. “Doomsday Clock”: how much time is left before nuclear war

The Doomsday Clock is a project of the University of Chicago Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, started in 1947 by the creators of the first American atomic bomb. The decision to change hands is made by the board of directors of the journal with the help of invited experts, including, in particular, 18 Nobel Prize laureates.

From time to time, the cover of the magazine features an image of a clock with hour and minute hands showing a few minutes to midnight. The time remaining until midnight symbolizes the tension in the international situation and progress in the development of nuclear weapons. Midnight itself symbolizes the moment of nuclear cataclysm.

During the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), the world was two steps away from nuclear war. However, since the crisis was resolved very quickly (within 38 days), the Clock did not have time to react and its readings did not change.

Over the 70-year history of the project, the hands of the Clock changed their position 24 times, including the initial setting at seven minutes in 1947. Here's how the Clock readings changed:

The decision to move the Doomsday Clock forward 30 seconds was made in January 2018. This is currently the closest position of the Doomsday Clock hands to midnight in history, however, this is not the first time (a similar value was set in 1953).

The Doomsday Clock is a metaphorical assessment of the risk of destruction of our world. They were invented in the American magazine "Bulletin of Nuclear Scientists" in 1947. The publication was founded by participants in the American Manhattan Project, who created the world's first atomic bomb. They were worried about their invention - the clock reflected the nuclear threat to humanity.

At first, the position of the clock hand was determined by the editor of the Bulletin, Evgeniy Rabinovich. After his death in 1973, decisions are made by the Science and Security Council, which includes scientists and experts from various fields. They consult with other experts, including the Board of Trustees, which includes 14 Nobel laureates. The Council meets twice a year and discusses recent developments. True, the time on the clock is changed less often: in 72 years this happened 25 times.

In 1947, when the clock was first printed on the cover of the Bulletin, it was set to seven minutes to midnight, the "annihilation of mankind." The timing was chosen arbitrarily: the artist decided that the hands looked good in this position. Two years later, the USSR successfully tested its nuclear bomb - the clock was set to 23:57. And in 1953, the hand was moved another minute closer to midnight: the USA, and soon the USSR, created thermonuclear bombs.

In 1962, the Cuban Missile Crisis occurred - the world had never been so close to nuclear war. But it lasted only a month, so the clocks did not have time to change. The clock came closest to the anti-record of 1953 in 1984, standing at 23:57. A year earlier, US President Ronald Reagan, during a public speech, told his fellow citizens that he had “outlawed Russia and would begin bombing in five minutes.” The farthest humanity was from Judgment Day was in 1991, after George Bush Sr. and Mikhail Gorbachev signed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START-1). Then the clock showed 23:43.

Nuclear weapons are not the only threat

Since 2007, experts began to take into account the risks to humanity that arise not only from nuclear weapons, but also from other technologies. Then climate change caused by human activity appeared among the threats. According to watchmakers, since 1995, humanity has been slowly but surely moving towards midnight. During this time, the clock was moved forward as many as eight times - and only once by a minute back. This happened in 2010, after the United States began negotiations with Russia on the New START Treaty.

In 2017, on the 70th anniversary of the introduction of the clock, the minute hand was moved forward for the first time by two and a half minutes - previously fractions had not been used. At that time, experts noted tense relations between the United States and Russia, the confrontation between Pakistan and India, the continuation of nuclear tests in North Korea and the strengthening of nationalism around the world.

In 2018, the clock again showed 23:58, as in 1953. “World leaders have failed to respond effectively to the threats of nuclear war and climate change, leaving the global security situation worse than a year ago and as bad as immediately after World War II,” the cover letter to world leaders and ordinary people said. of people.

This time the clock remained in place, but experts urge us not to delude ourselves and call the current situation in the world a new abnormality. The main problems are the same: nuclear weapons and climate change. The United States has withdrawn from the Iran nuclear deal and announced that it will withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. It is still unclear what to do with the DPRK's nuclear program. Nuclear powers are modernizing their nuclear arsenals, and the military doctrines of the United States and Russia once again talk about the use of the deadliest weapons in the world.

According to Bulletin experts, the problem of climate change is also getting worse. Emissions of carbon dioxide, which causes global warming, have been increasing again over the past two years. To avoid the worst-case scenario, emissions must not just be reduced, but reduced to zero. This goal looks unattainable. In the fall, a UN expert group released an alarming report on climate change, but at a December conference, oil exporting countries questioned its conclusions, and the United States previously withdrew from the Paris Agreement on reducing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Finally, another problem has worsened over the past year. Bulletin experts call it the decomposition of the information ecosystem: shameless lies are broadcast through the media, and the truth is presented as lies. “Deliberate attempts to distort reality increase social divisions, undermine faith in science and undermine trust in elections and democratic institutions,” the cover letter states. This makes other global problems even more difficult to solve.

Doomsday Clock was stopped at 23:58 by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists journal experts from the University of Chicago in 2018. Formally, the reasons for this step were North Korea’s persistence in its nuclear program, as well as global climate change. But everyone understands that the main games affecting the position of the needles are taking place between NATO, Russia and China. Two minutes to midnight is almost unprecedented in the 72-year clock period. A similar thing was observed during the era of thermonuclear tests, and even during the Cuban Missile Crisis, the position of the arrows was not so extreme. It’s paradoxical, but what we see in the world now is nothing like the times when bombers were equipped with atomic bombs before taking off, and US and USSR tanks aimed at each other at Checkpoint Charlie. At first glance, the approach of a real military conflict does not give any indication.

Apart from the hysteria that is whipped up by most of the media, now no one is particularly ready for serious military operations in the spirit of World War II. There are only two brigades of the US Armed Forces in Europe, which cannot be compared with the almost 300,000-strong contingent during the most intense years of the Cold War. Now resistance to the Russian army from NATO countries in the European theater of operations will last, at best, 1.5-2 months. And if Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons, even less. But both now and during the Cold War, such a blitzkrieg would have been a dead end. Ultimately, the country's leadership would face the prospect of managing the devastated territories of European countries with a hostile population and serious radioactive contamination. The United States would not wait long, and would first fire tactical nuclear weapons and then intercontinental missiles. And this, in fact, is the end of civilization as we know it. The stable balance between the two superpowers of the 20th century somehow protected us from Armageddon.

A commonplace example of what can happen if there is no equal rival on the horizon is the history of clumsy US aggression in the 90s and 2000s. Yugoslavia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya were hit, and this could not help but irritate the other players. Since then, the hands of the Doomsday Clock, after a short delay due to the collapse of the USSR, began to inexorably approach midnight.

Another alarming factor bringing war closer to us is the change of generations in the leadership of world leading countries. Young people who came to power knew about the horrors of World War II, at best, from the pages of university textbooks. For them, the concept of nuclear deterrence becomes only a burden on the country's defense budget. It is becoming increasingly difficult for policymakers and the expert community to understand the consequences of the use of nuclear weapons. For them, it could be just another click on their smartphone. On the other hand, the West understands very clearly that any military action on its own territory will inevitably lead to an acute internal reaction leading to a change of power. That is why third countries are becoming the arena of future (and modern) battles, which does not at all exclude a direct clash between the main participating countries. Now Ukraine is becoming such a territory, which may well pit Russia and NATO against each other. Possible triggers for local wars could be aggressive attempts to undermine the political system in Belarus or attacks on Russian bases in Syria.

Who will be the first to use nuclear weapons in hypothetical local clashes between Russia, China and NATO? Still, they will keep this power in a holster: modern military equipment allows you to successfully perform most tasks on the battlefield without irritating the enemy with nuclear strikes. According to experts from the weekly Profile, this is indicated by the experience of World War II, when none of the participating countries decided to use chemical weapons. But the potential of the armies in this was simply enormous: it was possible to simply flood both Germany and the Soviet Union with “chemicals.” But they didn’t dare, everyone was afraid of retribution. However, it is worth mentioning an alternative assessment of this judgment: in all countries the chemical protection service of the army and civilian population was so well developed that it made the spraying of toxic substances virtually useless.

World War III is impossible? It is already underway, although it has much smaller losses in human resources. Numerous conflicts on the periphery: Georgia in 2008, the Arab Spring, Syria, Ukraine and many more brewing small wars. This is exactly the picture of a global war that is emerging at the present time. They talked about it back in the 60s and even gave it a name - “mediated war”, or proxy war. Usually several countries fight on the territory of a small problematic state using the resources of the latter, often under the guise of “military aid” to the fraternal people. A typical conflict of this type was the war in Spain, when Germany and the USSR tried on weapons against each other, rehearsing for a big massacre. Later, such arenas became Korea, Vietnam and, with reservations, Afghanistan. Now we see this in Syria. Proxy wars, as cruel as they may sound, are very good for the planet as a whole. Countries are “blowing off steam”, not daring to exchange direct blows. This did not happen even during the Cuban missile crisis. The only threat to peace in “civilized” countries are mistakes on the periphery, when hotheads either strike at the semi-mythical Wagner PMC or shoot down Tomahawks en masse. In fact, Russia and the United States are very indirectly, but still at war with each other.

But such a benign picture could be destroyed by the abandonment of two important treaties: the INF Treaty and START-3. The first one has already been torn apart, and the second one will predictably not be renewed in 2021. And a problem on a global scale will be created by China, which has a lot of medium-range missiles, which greatly irritates the United States. The United States' buildup of tactical missiles will inevitably provoke a response from China, including in terms of expanding its intercontinental nuclear force. In this, China is still seriously behind both Russia and the United States. In full accordance with the snowball effect, the remaining major nuclear operators will begin to build up their own arsenals. And then hypersonic weapons will arrive in time with a new round of the arms race. The redistribution of deterrence arsenals is inevitable, and it cannot happen without shocks.

As a result, everything is heading towards the fact that in the coming years the Doomsday Clock will be “pushed” another 30 seconds closer to midnight. The question is whether the main culprits behind the switch will pay attention to this.

The Doomsday Clock is a project of The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, allegorically counting down the time until the possible end of the world. The watch was created to remind all people of the danger of a nuclear disaster and the existence of other global threats that could lead to the death of all living things. The essence of the project is simple - the closer the minute hand is to midnight, the more tense the situation in the world. Since 1947, scientists and experts have gathered to analyze major events and determine the position of the hands. Over time, the Clock became a recognizable symbol, and the translation of the hands turned into a big event.

The history of the Doomsday Clock

Library of Congress / United States / East News

The Doomsday Clock first appeared on the cover of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in 1947 as a response to the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the only time nuclear weapons were ever used in combat. The appearance of the Doomsday Clock was preceded by the “Frank Report,” a petition that nuclear physicists participating in the US nuclear weapons program (the Manhattan Project) sent to the US military leadership in June 1945. In a joint appeal, scientists asked not to drop atomic bombs on Japan and described the dire consequences of the nuclear arms race. Among those who signed the petition was Russian-born biochemist Evgeniy Rabinovich. It was he who founded the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists magazine in 1945, covering issues of international security and talking about global threats associated with nuclear weapons, climate change and new technologies. Famous contributors to the magazine include Albert Einstein, Max Born and Bertrand Russell.

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

The Doomsday Clock for the cover announcing its appearance was drawn by artist Martyl Langsdorf, who was the wife of one of the authors of the project. According to her, the time on the clock was set to seven minutes to midnight because “they looked good that way.” Moreover, initially she was going to draw a simple letter U on the cover of the Bulletin (designating uranium as a chemical element), but after listening to the conversations of physicists, she realized that the main leitmotif in the nuclear threat was haste: scientists were clearly aware that if a nuclear war swept across the world , then it will be the shortest of all.

Who makes the decision to change the Doomsday Clock?

In the first years, the clock was “tuned” by Evgeniy Rabinovich, in consultation with his colleagues. After his death in 1973, the decision to move the hands was made by the journal's board of directors together with experts, including 18 Nobel Prize laureates. Over more than 70 years of the project’s existence, the time was changed 23 times. Each translation of the Hours is accompanied by a detailed report from the authors of the Bulletin.

Carolyn Kaster / AP / East News

The project is regularly criticized due to the lack of clear criteria. For example, futurist researcher Anders Sandberg suggested that talk about the threat of a nuclear disaster or global warming is simply artificial, and all these pessimistic forecasts not only do not provide an objective assessment, but are even misleading.

The authors of the project themselves emphasize that the Clock does not predict anything, much less show the exact time, but serves as a reminder that the end of the world is inevitable if people do not think about the consequences of their actions.

What does the Doomsday Clock show today?

On January 24, 2019, the clock hands remained at last year’s mark of 23:58. Despite the fact that the time on the clock remained unchanged, the authors of the project clarified that this is not an indicator of stability, but a “serious warning” for world leaders and all inhabitants of the planet, since in 70 years the clock hand was so close to midnight for the third time. The clock first reached this mark in 1953, when the US and USSR were testing the hydrogen bomb and Cold War tensions were at their peak.

Mark Wilson/Getty Images

Bulletin President Rachel Bronson said the world was in a precarious state, far from normal. Scientists cited the improvement in relations between the United States and the DPRK and the development of technology as favorable moments, but the fact of the presence of nuclear weapons, climate change and ongoing conflicts between countries still tip the scales in a negative direction. In addition, researchers named information warfare and fake news as a new danger.

“A world in which fantasy and anger replace truth is a terrible world,” said Herb Lin, a senior fellow in cybersecurity at Stanford University.

Doomsday Clock in popular culture

The clock was mentioned in the lyrics of The Clash (track It's 55 minutes past 11), The Who, Iron Maiden (track Two Minutes to Midnight), Smashing Pumpkins (track Doomsday Clock) and Linkin Park (album Minutes to Midnight), and also based on a comic book series that pits Alan Moore's Watchmen characters against the DC Universe's Batman and Superman.

Key dates and events of the Doomsday Clock

The most auspicious year in the history of the Doomsday Clock was 1991, when the USSR collapsed and the Cold War ended, when the hands showed 17 minutes to midnight.

1947: 7 minutes to midnight Setting the Clock. Cold War between the USA and the USSR.

1949: 3 minutes to midnight The USSR tested its first nuclear bomb.

1953: 2 Minutes to Midnight The USSR and the USA tested thermonuclear bombs nine months apart.

1963: 12 Minutes to Midnight The USA and the USSR signed a treaty banning nuclear weapons tests (this happened after the Cuban Missile Crisis, which is considered the most dangerous moment in human history).

1968: 7 Minutes to Midnight The US involvement in the conflict in Vietnam is increasing. France and China are creating and testing their nuclear weapons. Wars begin in the Middle East, in India.

1969: 10 Minutes to Midnight The US Senate ratifies the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. 1972: 12 Minutes to Midnight Negotiations between the USA and the USSR on the limitation of strategic arms end successfully, both sides sign an agreement.

Tim Boyle/Getty Images

1974: 9 Minutes to Midnight India tested its first nuclear bomb, the Smiling Buddha, and relations between the superpowers deteriorated.

1984: 3 Minutes to Midnight The war in Afghanistan continues, Ronald Reagan intensifies his aggressive rhetoric against the Soviet Union.

1991: 17 Minutes to Midnight The Cold War ends due to the collapse of the USSR, the United States signs an arms reduction treaty.

1995: 14 Minutes to Midnight“Brain drain” and nuclear technology from the countries of the former USSR.

1998: 9 Minutes to Midnight Nuclear weapons tests by India and Pakistan.

2015: 3 minutes to midnight Countries with nuclear weapons ignore agreements and do not reduce stockpiles, a new arms race has begun between the United States and Russia, and a crisis has begun between Russia and Ukraine.

2017: 2.5 minutes to midnight US President Donald Trump has publicly denied climate change and made controversial statements about nuclear weapons.

2018: 2 minutes to midnight North Korea continues to conduct nuclear tests, the threat of climate change is growing, and tensions between the United States and Russia are rising amid a possible cyber war.

I am more than sure that many of you have heard about the doomsday clock - the ominous name of some incomprehensible clock that constantly moves closer to midnight. In fact, this is a more interesting phenomenon than the occasional mention in news reports. In addition, the clocks are not only moved forward; there have also been adjustments in the opposite direction. What does this depend on, what kind of watch is it, when did it appear and why should you not be afraid of it? We will answer all questions in this article.

A colorful scenario of the destruction of everything on earth

You might think that the Doomsday Clock is a real clock that stands or hangs somewhere. In reality, they only exist on the cover of a magazine that is a project of the University of Chicago. In fact, they do not even carry time, but mathematical time. Midnight on the clock means a nuclear cataclysm and, in fact, the end of the world. The closer the clock is to this mark, the more likely a sad outcome is. Sometimes the clocks are set back. The fact that the movement of the arrows is not one-way is further confirmation that their position indicates precisely the probability of the end, and not the imminent inevitable end. The clock does not count down, but makes it clear when the probability of the end of the world is highest.

Oddly enough, the clock was invented by the same people who invented the atomic bomb. It was then, in 1947, that they were set at 23:53, but very quickly moved to 23:57 when the Soviet Union tested its first in 1949.

The enchanting beauty of a deadly phenomenon

The question arises why the clock was set at 23:53 at the very beginning. You won't like the answer... It was done just like that. Someone just decided that 7 minutes before a nuclear disaster looks beautiful. That is why on the cover of the Bulletin there was a clock with this time on the dial. No hidden meaning.

An example of the peaceful, albeit stupid, use of nuclear weapons:

In the first years of the watch's existence, the decision to translate it was made solely by the editor-in-chief of the magazine. After his death in 1973, the decision was made by the Science and Safety Council. This council includes experts from completely different fields of science. We can say that this way the watch has become more accurate.

What time does the doomsday clock show?

Moving the hands forward 4 minutes in 1949 did not bring the clock closer to the end of the world. Just 4 years after this, the USA and USSR tested bombs at about the same time. Then the clock was set to 23:58. However, later, they were twice transferred to five minutes ago. This happened in 1960 and 1963.

In the first case, this was due to the world community's awareness of the danger of the uncontrolled use of atomic weapons. Awareness was expressed in a large number of statements by various political figures on this topic. In the second case, the USA and the USSR signed a treaty banning nuclear weapons testing. The Cuban Missile Crisis did not even prevent the clock from being set back. The tension rose quickly, but subsided just as quickly. The publication simply did not have time to respond to the threat.

A visual example of how scientists change the doomsday clock

In the future, the clock change was affected by the clash of interests in Vietnam, and India's testing of its first nuclear bomb, and much more. The safest year was 1991, when the USA and the USSR signed an agreement on the reduction of strategic weapons. This marked the end of the Cold War and allowed the clock to be set to 11:43 p.m.

It is worth noting that in addition to the threat of a nuclear strike by one of the parties, the doomsday clock was influenced, although to a lesser extent, by the ability to repel these strikes. The development of air defense systems eased tensions slightly.

The doomsday clock is currently set at 11:58 p.m. This is due to the great tension in the world caused in the Middle East, North Korea's testing of its nuclear weapons and trade wars of some countries, the largest of which is the conflict between the United States and China. In addition, now the doomsday clock is influenced not only by the situation on the arms market, but also by other factors.

What affects the doomsday clock

According to the creators of the watch, the main factor influencing the position of the hands was the nuclear threat. In 2007, the approach changed slightly. According to the authors of the Bulletin, humanity is slowly but surely moving towards catastrophic climate change. Now they too have begun to influence the clock. Later, the position in society of different countries and some other factors also began to be taken into account.

Against the background of relative stability in the field of strategic weapons, changes in the time remaining until midnight can be changed precisely by including new variables in the calculation.

Since 1991, the clock has been reset 9 times, of which the hands have only swung back once. This happened in 2010, when the United States promised to reduce and began negotiating with Russia to sign a new treaty on strategic offensive weapons (START).

Since 2017, a new tradition has emerged to change the clock by 30 seconds. The gap to midnight is getting smaller, and the step needs to be reduced. It is possible that soon they will translate 10 seconds at a time, or even one at a time.

Should you be afraid of the doomsday clock?



Not so long ago, in which I gave examples of the promised ends of the world. Then, as an epilogue, I said that the end of the world is inevitable, but you shouldn’t be afraid of it. At least you shouldn't be afraid of it on a specific date. The probability of its occurrence in the infinite future, even according to probability theory, is one hundred percent. Does it make you feel better knowing that in many billions of years the Sun, like all the stars, will explode and the Earth will come to an end? To be honest, I don’t care what happens there. Express your opinion on this matter in our Telegram chat.

This is what an underwater atomic explosion looks like.

Likewise, there is no need to be afraid of the fact that the clock is moving closer and closer to midnight. The closer they get to it, the more resistance their arrows will encounter. It's one thing to swing nuclear fists when the collision is still far away, but quite another when your finger is raised above the button. At the helm of nuclear powers are people who understand that after a strike on other members of this club, a response will follow and everything will end. It won't matter what happens next. That is why they will not allow such a collision. There are no winners in a nuclear war.

I don’t know what weapons will be used to fight in the third world war, but in the fourth they will fight with sticks and stones - Albert Einstein on the global threat of using powerful weapons.

In this situation, I think it is more likely that someone responsible for the air defense systems made a mistake. Although, in our age of technology, there are probably systems that will not simply allow one conventional sergeant to make a mistake in a game with such high stakes.

Let's also discard this option and move on with our lives in peace. We have enough other problems to worry about what we cannot change.