Chinese expansion or new horde. Chinese expansion: fiction or reality

Information from the field - what is happening on Lake Baikal and the Far East. Does Chinese expansion threaten Russia?

Anna Sochina

I’m sure you’ve heard more than once that Putin allegedly sold Siberia to the Chinese, the Chinese are massively seizing our Far Eastern territories, and so on in the same spirit. Maybe you even agree with this opinion - well, I want to talk about this so-called intervention, and to make the task easier, let’s focus on the territory near Lake Baikal.

A petition from a resident of the city of Angarsk, who is concerned about the “Chinese-style intervention” and asks the president to pay attention to the problem, is gaining rapid popularity. The petition, which has already collected more than 58 thousand signatures, mainly concerns the village of Listvyanka, located right on the shore of Lake Baikal, but in general, the situation is also typical for other coastal settlements.

Right on the shore of the lake, the Chinese are buying up plots of land, registering them as individual housing construction, which they have every right to do by law, and then they simply hang a sign on the cottage and the hotel is ready. At the moment, only 3 or 4 hotels in Listvyanka are legally registered as Chinese hotels, all the rest (now there are about 15 to 20 of them there) do not pay any taxes to the Russian treasury.

The State Duma drew attention to the situation - according to the deputy from the Irkutsk region, Mikhail Shchapov, who had already discussed this issue with a delegation from Listvyanka, the main problem lies in our legislation, and not in the dominance of the Chinese. According to the parliamentarian, the legislation around Lake Baikal is very contradictory: there are many unnecessary prohibitions and there are huge gaps.

The fact is that when it comes to Lake Baikal, it should be taken into account that this is a nature protection zone, where many different rules apply at the same time - and what can I say, there is even a separate law. As a result, all these norms come into conflict with each other, and it is extremely difficult to open a legal hotel on the territory near the lake.

Deputy Sergei Ten, who oversees the issue of Baikal in the Duma, shares the same opinion. According to him, they have already begun to discuss how to improve laws for both Russian and Chinese entrepreneurs in order to stop illegal development of the coastal zone. The key condition for this is the receipt of taxes into the Russian treasury, which is not happening at the moment. But while the deputies are working on new norms regarding construction, I still have a question for the local authorities: it’s not very clear how you can turn a blind eye to a dozen illegal hotels under your nose - only if you don’t make money from it, of course.

With all this, it is important to note that illegal hotels on Lake Baikal are opened not only by the Chinese, but also by the Russians themselves, and in general, this happens everywhere here, throughout the country. Another fact that causes concern is that construction causes serious harm to the environment, because in coastal areas, for example, mountains that are part of the natural landscape are torn down. Construction debris, lake pollution - all this goes into the same piggy bank. But the fact that there are such a huge number of tourists from China on Baikal is not surprising - this is logical, first of all, because of the geographical location, in addition, they enjoy visa benefits, they have a lot of money at the current exchange rate of the ruble and yuan, they, in after all, they make up the bulk of tourists visiting Russia.

And since we’re talking about tourism, according to experts, the growing flow of tourists, in particular from China, and more than a million people came in 2017, increases the income of fifty-three sectors of the economy, and the Chinese in Russia spend more than two billion dollars annually. And so that this figure continues to grow, in the fall our government decided to expand visa-free travel opportunities for Chinese citizens. I understand that the author of the petition is frightened by the influx of Chinese tourists, and I agree that it is simply necessary to regulate tourist flows - by the way, the Duma is also concerned about this, but it is strange to call all this expansion. Then the same Chinese expansion can be observed in Paris, Rome, Barcelona or St. Petersburg.

And besides, with our tourism infrastructure we need to rejoice at the influx of tourists. When I watched local media reports about the situation in Listvyanka, what struck me most was not the dominance of the Chinese, but the fact that there is no sewage system there. It’s no surprise that the direct contribution of tourism to Russia’s GDP is 1 percent, while in leading economies it is 3-5 percent, according to the Institute for Integrated Strategic Studies. This situation has arisen for two reasons: the completely undeveloped infrastructure in most resorts and the resulting gray business schemes.

But returning to the conversation about Chinese expansion. Most clearly the inconsistency of all this panic is shown by this map. So, in China, 94 percent of the population is concentrated in large cities in the southeast of the country.

In the northern provinces, as you can see, the population is not at all dense. Now let's look at the proportion of the population in Russia: 6 percent live in Siberia and the Far East. From all this the question arises: why the hell should the Chinese settle in these territories if they don’t even live in their own north?

No, I do not deny that we lease territories to the Chinese. But these territories are much smaller than is commonly believed. Among the well-known transactions, one can cite an agreement between the Chinese company Huae Xinban and the government of the Trans-Baikal Territory on the lease of 115 thousand hectares of land for 49 years so that the Chinese could grow crops on this land. The volume of investments amounted to about 24 billion rubles - at the exchange rate for 2015. What would have happened if Huae Xinban had not been there? Most likely, the land would simply be empty. Further background The same applies to Khabarovsk and Primorsky Territories - despite the fact that hundreds of thousands of hectares were rented out there starting in 2009, only 2.5 thousand Chinese came to work from 2009 to 2015.

How the Chinese cultivate the leased land is another matter. They use harmful chemicals, do not comply with environmental standards, cut down forests, and so on. And if the Russian authorities want to cope with this situation, then there is only one way, besides strengthening the work of the supervisory authorities, of course. This is the activation of the economic and social life of the Far East.

A good example is the “Far Eastern hectare” program - now more than 34 thousand plots have already been given for use, more than 70 thousand applications are under consideration. But, again, just a plot of land is being proposed, and no one is talking about infrastructure in the form of at least roads.

If programs for the development of the Far East are implemented efficiently, the ratio of 94 to 6 may change, and there will definitely be no need to worry about the expansion of the Chinese. But if local authorities again choose to enrich themselves through illegal development of environmental zones, neither tourism nor the economy as a whole will develop in these regions.

Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha visits the White House on October 3 to discuss the North Korean nuclear threat with US President Donald Trump. However, the peculiarity of the moment is that Thailand today is a partner of Beijing, not Washington. And this is far from the only example where former US allies in Southeast Asia are looking towards China.

A holy place is never empty

Thailand's relations with the United States and China are an eloquent example of how priorities change. In 2014, Thailand suffered a coup d'etat, after which the United States suspended military assistance to Bangkok, canceled a number of interstate visits and reduced the level of cooperation with this country.

Three years have passed, and today Thailand is on the list of 16 countries with which the United States experiences trade imbalances. At the same time, if Chinese investments barely reached 1% of the total volume of foreign direct investment in the Thai economy ten years ago, today they have exceeded 15%. In the list of investors in Thailand at the end of last year, China took second place after Japan.

This change in the balance of power was influenced by the US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership (TPP), in which Bangkok has shown increased interest since 2013. However, the main reason is ideological.

“The United States refuses to support a regime that it considers undemocratic and tramples on human rights. Once it has activated the so-called mechanism of moral dominance, Washington can no longer sacrifice principles in its foreign policy. And communist China does not pay attention to all these nuances and acts based solely on principles economic feasibility. And he wins,” says Dmitry Abzalov, president of the Center for Strategic Communications.

In addition to purely economic interests, defense and strategic ones also play a role. An escalation of the conflict between China and Japan over a group of islands could theoretically lead to the fact that ships of the US Seventh Fleet will at some point block the Strait of Malacca, and then the only gateway to the South China Sea for the PRC will remain the planned Thai Canal through the Kra Isthmus. This is an additional incentive for China to increase cooperation with Thailand.

Shadow of a Chinese Submarine

Another example of a change in foreign policy guidelines was Malaysia. On the eve of Prime Minister Najib Razak's visit to the United States, a Chinese submarine visited the Malaysian naval base at Sepanggar in Borneo for four days.

“Both Malaysia and Thailand are constantly trying to show their equal distance from both the United States and China. But the statements of the leaders of these countries are one thing, and who is actually pulling the rope on their side in the region is another matter. The United States is noticeably losing to China. In recent years, China has greatly strengthened its influence in Southeast Asia. The Americans have begun to realize that they are losing influence in the region. The Philippines is their closest ally, Thailand is also connected by a thousand threads with the United States, but they are leaning towards China, whose economic presence there is constantly growing,” Elena Fomicheva, an expert at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told the Chinese website of the Sputnik agency.

The increasing visits of Asian leaders to Washington are evidence that the White House is concerned about the turn of its strategic allies towards Beijing and is trying to find approaches to them in order to return the “prodigal partners” under its wing.

Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Laos - this is not a complete list of countries in the region whose cooperation with the United States is either gradually winding down or remains at an unchanged level, while trade, economic, military and political partnership with China has been experiencing for several years process of dynamic development.

"The US is too busy with itself"

Meanwhile, while the United States is withdrawing from international partnerships (such as the TPP and NAFTA), regional and interregional integration processes continue without them, says Alexey Portansky, a professor at the Faculty of World Economy and International Politics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. He recalls that the 11 countries remaining in the TPP are continuing the process of ratifying the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement. In addition, another agreement is expected to be signed by the end of this year - on the creation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

“The creation of RCEP involves the ASEAN countries and ten other states with which this association has agreements on a free trade zone. This will be a huge economic bloc, which accounts for half of the world’s population and approximately 50% of the GDP of the entire globe. It will include such rapidly developing giants like China and India, so the real power of the new economic integration formation will be difficult to overestimate,” says Alexey Portansky.

China is actively increasing trade and economic cooperation with Asia-Pacific countries: since 2000, its bilateral trade turnover with a dozen ASEAN member states has grown more than tenfold and exceeded $500 billion, while for the United States this figure is at $200 billion.

“Today the White House is too busy with internal American problems to pay sufficient attention to maintaining the status of the United States as a world power,” says Dmitry Abzalov. “In addition, the promises to solve economic and social problems and increase the number of jobs in the country that Donald Trump gave out in during their election campaign, directly contradict the objectives of any foreign expansion and impede access to the US domestic market for potential trading partners."

The analyst is convinced that Russia can well use the growing economic influence of China in the Asia-Pacific region and in the world as a whole to its own interests. There are many sectors of the economy where Moscow can offer its participation, complementing Beijing - for example, in the energy sector, mechanical engineering, and the military-industrial complex. And, acting in cooperation with the PRC, expand trade and economic cooperation with a variety of countries and regions.

There are many mechanisms of interaction between Russia and ASEAN today. At the recent economic forum in Vladivostok, the possibilities of cooperation and exchange of experience between the advanced development territories of the Far East, the Free Port of Vladivostok and free economic zones in Southeast Asia were separately discussed. A total of 32 investment projects were presented totaling 1.3 trillion rubles. These are projects in the field of development of transport and logistics systems of the Far East, in the field of mining, gas chemical industry, forestry, agriculture and fishing, as well as tourism and healthcare.

The Rwandan Genocide of 1994 was a campaign of massacres of Tutsis and moderate Hutus by Hutus. As well as the massacres of Hutus by the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) against Tutsis. On the Hutu side, it was carried out by the Hutu extremist paramilitary groups Interahamwe and Impuzamugambi in Rwanda with the active support of sympathizers from ordinary citizens with the knowledge and instructions of the country's authorities.

The murder rate was five times higher than the murder rate in German concentration camps during World War II. The offensive of the Rwandan Tutsi Patriotic Front put an end to the killing of Tutsis.

10 Hutu decrees

Every Hutu should know that a Tutsi woman, wherever she is, has the interests of her ethnic group at heart. Therefore, a Hutu who marries a Tutsi woman, befriends a Tutsi woman, or keeps a Tutsi as a secretary or concubine will be considered a traitor.
Every Hutu should remember that the daughters of our tribe are more conscious of their roles as wives and mothers. They are more beautiful, honest and efficient as secretaries.
Hutu women, be vigilant, try to reason with your husbands, brothers and sons.
Every Hutu should know that Tutsis are deceitful in transactions. His only goal is the superiority of his ethnic group. Therefore, every Hutu who
- is a business partner of a Tutsi
- who invests money in the Tutsi project
- who lends or lends money to Tutsis
- who helps Tutsis in business by issuing licenses and so on.
Hutus should occupy all strategic positions in politics, economics, and law enforcement.
In education, the majority of teachers and students must be Hutu.
The Rwandan armed forces will be staffed exclusively by Hutu representatives.
The Hutus must stop feeling sorry for the Tutsis.
The Hutus must be united in the fight against the Tutsis.
Every Hutu must spread the Hutu ideology. A Hutu who tries to stop his brothers from spreading the Hutu ideology is considered a traitor.

Rwandan society has traditionally consisted of two castes: the privileged minority of the Tutsi people and the overwhelming majority of the Hutu people, although a number of researchers have expressed doubts about the advisability of dividing Tutsis and Hutus along ethnic lines and point to the fact that during the period of Belgian control over Rwanda, the decision to classify a particular citizen in Tutsi or Hutu it was carried out on the basis of property.

Tutsis and Hutus speak the same language, but theoretically they have noticeable racial differences, greatly smoothed out by many years of assimilation. Until 1959, the status quo remained, but as a result of a period of mass unrest, the Hutus gained administrative control. During the period of increasing economic difficulties, which coincided with the intensification of the Tutsi-based rebel movement known as the Rwandan Patriotic Front, the process of demonizing Tutsis in the media began in 1990, especially in the newspaper Kangura (Wake up!), which published all sorts of Speculation about a global Tutsi conspiracy focused on the brutality of RPF militants, and some reports were deliberately fabricated, such as the case of a Hutu woman beaten to death with hammers in 1993 or the capture of Tutsi spies near the Burundian border.

Chronicle

On April 6, 1994, while approaching Kigali, a plane carrying Rwandan President Juvenal Habyarimana and Burundi President Ntaryamira was shot down by a MANPADS. The plane was returning from Tanzania, where both presidents participated in an international conference

Prime Minister Agata Uwilingiyimana was assassinated the next day, April 7. On the morning of this day, 10 Belgian and 5 Ghanaian UN peacekeepers guarding the Prime Minister's house were surrounded by soldiers of the Rwandan presidential guard. After a short standoff, the Belgian military received an order via radio from their commander to submit to the demands of the attackers and lay down their arms. Seeing that the peacekeepers guarding her were disarmed, Prime Minister Uwilingiyimana with her husband, children and several accompanying people tried to hide on the territory of the American embassy. However, soldiers and militants from the youth branch of the ruling party, known as Interahamwe, found and brutally killed the prime minister, her husband and several other people. Miraculously, only her children survived, hidden by one of the UN employees.

The fate of the surrendered Belgian UN soldiers was also decided by the militants, whose leadership considered it necessary to neutralize the peacekeeping contingent and chose the method of dealing with members of the contingent that had worked well in Somalia. The Interahamwe militants initially suspected the Belgian contingent of the UN forces of “sympathy” for the Tutsis. Moreover, in the past, Rwanda was a colony of Belgium and many were not averse to reckoning with the former “colonizers”. According to eyewitnesses, the brutal militants first castrated all the Belgians, then stuffed the severed genitals into their mouths and, after brutal torture and humiliation, shot them dead

State radio and a private station affiliated with it, known as “A Thousand Hills” (Radio Television Libre des Mille Collines), heated up the situation with calls for the murder of Tutsis and read out lists of potentially dangerous persons, local burgomasters organized work to identify and kill them. Through administrative methods, ordinary citizens were also involved in organizing the campaign of mass murder, and many Tutsis were killed by their neighbors. The murder weapon was mainly a bladed weapon (machete). The most brutal scenes took place in places where refugees were temporarily concentrated in schools and churches.

1994, April 11 - murder of 2,000 Tutsis at the Don Bosco school (Kigali), after the evacuation of Belgian peacekeepers.
1994 April 21 - The International Red Cross reports possible executions of hundreds of thousands of civilians.
1994, April 22 - massacre of 5,000 Tutsis at Sovu Monastery.
The United States did not intervene in the conflict, fearing a repetition of the events of 1993 in Somalia.
1994, July 4 - troops of the Rwandan Patriotic Front entered the capital. 2 million Hutus, fearing retribution for the genocide (there were 30 thousand people in the paramilitary forces), and most of the genocide by the Tutsis, left the country.

Rwandan wanted poster

International Crimes Tribunal for Rwanda

In November 1994, the International Crimes Tribunal for Rwanda began operating in Tanzania. Among those under investigation are the organizers and instigators of the mass extermination of Rwandan citizens in the spring of 1994, among whom are mainly former officials of the ruling regime. In particular, former Prime Minister Jean Kambanda was sentenced to life for crimes against humanity. Among the proven episodes was the encouragement of misanthropic propaganda by the state radio station RTLM, which called for the destruction of Tutsi citizens.

In December 1999, George Rutagande, who in 1994 led the Interahamwe (the youth wing of the then ruling Republican National Movement for the Development of Democracy) party, was sentenced to life imprisonment. In October 1995, Rutagande was arrested.

On September 1, 2003, the case of Emmanuel Ndindabhizi, who was Rwanda's Minister of Finance in 1994, was heard. According to the police, he is involved in the massacre of people in Kibuye Prefecture. E. Ndindabahizi personally ordered the killings, distributed weapons to Hutu volunteers and was present during the attacks and beatings. According to witnesses, he stated: “A lot of Tutsis pass through here, why don’t you kill them?”, “Are you killing Tutsi women who are married to Hutus? ...Go and kill them. They can poison you."

The role of the international tribunal is controversial in Rwanda, since trials are very lengthy and defendants cannot be punished with the death penalty. For trials of persons outside the jurisdiction of the tribunal, which tries only the most important organizers of the genocide, the country has created a system of local courts that have handed down at least 100 death sentences.

Prime Minister Agata Uwilingiyimana was five months pregnant when she was assassinated at her residence. The rebels ripped open her stomach.

43 1-year-old Mukarurinda Alice, who lost her entire family and an arm during the massacre, lives with the man who injured her.

42 -year-old Alfonsina Mukamfizi, who miraculously survived the genocide, the rest of her family were killed

R.S

Paul Kagame, the President of Rwanda, is very beloved here because he was the leader of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), which in 1994, as a result of a civil war, seized power in the country and stopped the genocide of the Tutsi.

After the RPF came to power, Kagame was the Minister of Defense, but in fact it was he who led the country. Then in 2000 he was elected president, and in 2010 he was elected to a second term. He miraculously managed to restore the country's strength and economy. For example, since 2005, the country’s GDP has doubled, and the country’s population has become 100% provided with food. Technology began to develop at a rapid pace, and the government managed to attract many foreign investors to the country. Kagame actively fought corruption and strengthened government power structures well. He developed trade relations with neighboring countries and signed a common market agreement with them. Under his rule, women stopped being discriminated against and began to participate in the political life of the country.

Most of the population is proud of their president, but there are also those who fear and criticize him. The problem is that the opposition has practically disappeared in the country. That is, it did not completely disappear, but simply many of its representatives ended up in prison. There were also reports that during the 2010 election campaign, some people were killed or arrested - this is also associated with political opposition to the president. By the way, in 2010, in addition to Kagame, three more people from different parties participated in the elections, and he then spoke a lot about the fact that there are free elections in Rwanda and that citizens themselves have the right to choose their own destiny. But even here, critics noted that these three parties provide great support to the president and that the three new candidates are his good friends.

Be that as it may, last December in Rwanda a referendum was held on amendments to the constitution that would give Kagame the right to be elected president for a third seven-year term, and then for two more terms of five years. The amendments were adopted with 98% of the votes. New elections will be held next year.

In 2000, when Kagame became president, the Rwandan parliament adopted the country's development program Vision 2020. Its goal is to transform Rwanda into a middle-income, technological country, fight poverty, improve the quality of healthcare and unite the people. Kagame began developing the program in the late 90s. When compiling it, he and his associates relied on the experience of China, Singapore and Thailand. Here are the main points of the program: effective management, high levels of education and health care, development of information technology, development of infrastructure, agriculture and livestock breeding.

As the name implies, the implementation of the program should be completed by 2020, and in 2011 the Rwandan government summed up interim results. Then each of the goals of the plan was assigned one of three statuses: “according to plan,” “ahead” and “lagging behind.” And it turned out that the implementation of 44% of the goals went according to plan, 11% - ahead of schedule, 22% - behind the times. Among the latter were increasing population, fighting poverty and protecting the environment. In 2012, Belgium conducted a study on the implementation of the program and stated that the successes were very impressive. Among the main achievements, she noted the development of education and healthcare and the creation of a favorable environment for doing business.

When it comes to the development agenda, Kagame often begins to argue that Rwanda's main asset is its people: “Our strategy is based on thinking about people. Therefore, when distributing the national budget, we focus on education, healthcare, technology development and innovation. We think about people all the time."

There are many government programs in Rwanda that help the population get out of poverty and live with more or less dignity. For example, there is the Clean Water program, which over 18 years has been able to increase the population’s access to disinfected water by 23%. There is also a program through which all children have the opportunity to go to primary school. In 2006, a program was launched with a name something like “A cow for every home.” Thanks to her, poor families received a cow. Under another program, children from low-income families are given simple laptops.

The President of Rwanda is also active in promoting technology. In particular, he provided the country with a decently functioning Internet and built something like a local Silicon Valley - the kLab information and communication technology center. Its specialists develop online games and IT technologies.

For quite some time there has been debate about the danger of Russia's rapprochement with China and the consequences of Chinese migration to the border regions of Siberia and the Far East.

As a result, there is complete confusion in the minds of non-specialists, some of whom instinctively consider the threat to be very urgent, some again instinctively adhere to the exact opposite position, and the majority are already so tired of these incomprehensible discussions that they have given up on them. And, probably, in vain, because risks really exist.

Who isn't afraid of the cold?

Let's not forget: Southeast Asia is densely populated. There are complex interethnic relationships based on mutual balance and unspoken agreements. The authorities there, to put it mildly, will not welcome an unexpected and sharp increase in the number of one of the diasporas. Even in Singapore, where the Chinese are the absolute majority.

In addition, in China itself, the regions located in the south and southeast are the most economically developed. It is there that the new Chinese economic model is being successfully implemented. But the north of the country is poor, sparsely populated and underinvested. The difference in income between it and the southeast is significant and tends to increase. It is from there that the flow of migration to Russia mainly comes. The cold does not frighten people who can earn much more in a foreign country than at home. Other insufficiently favorable living conditions are also not an obstacle, since migrants going to Russia often live worse at home.

And, of course, the Chinese are attracted to Russia by the combination of enormous natural resources with the unacceptably low attention of the authorities and the population to their careful use. Today, forest is first on the agenda, and the attitude of the Chinese towards the development of this resource, and others too, is simply unacceptable. And also trade in Chinese-made goods, including smuggled ones.

The traditional remark of supporters of the Chinese presence in Russia in this regard: it is our own fault that migrants treat our natural resources this way. Correct point. There is only one significant “but”: for a number of reasons, the Chinese tend to have such an attitude towards the natural resources of a foreign country; they generally strive to earn more money faster and more, as is typical of a nation that has entered the stage of primary capital accumulation, so private Chinese capital requires much more serious control than, say, European capital.

Migration is inevitable

So the migration of Chinese to Russia will continue. In general, several main factors favor it.

Firstly, it is the unpretentiousness, patience, and hard work of the Chinese workforce. Few other ethnic groups can succeed in the conditions of Siberia and the Far East. For example, the vast majority of Italians will simply refuse to work there. But the Chinese will endure weather conditions, cope with everyday difficulties, and then achieve their goal in business.

Secondly, there is strict economic and social necessity. The time for debate about whether Russia needs foreign labor migration has already passed. According to available forecasts, the population of our country will decrease from 143 million to 137 million people by 2026. By this time, the total natural decline of the working-age population will reach 18 million people.

Without Chinese migration and Chinese trade, the situation in some border regions will soon become critical. Let me remind you that attempts made back in tsarist times to limit the influx of Chinese labor were ineffective, since compliance with them would have led to stagnation of the Russian border economy. Today there is a clear interest in the Chinese presence not only of Russian regional authorities, but also of part of the local population. The closer to China, the greater the economic opportunities. Thirdly, the “bridgeheads” in Russia created by representatives of the eastern neighbor in the 90s. Moreover, the Chinese not only took advantage of the favorable situation. They have gained a foothold in the Russian economy and are now using this to help their compatriots.

Thirdly, the influx of migrant entrepreneurs is facilitated by the persisting, if not growing, corruption of local authorities. Paradoxical as it may seem at first glance, people often feel less “embarrassed” with the Chinese than with their compatriots. Otherwise it is impossible to explain the “lawlessness” that still often occurs in border regions. And in general, to the benefit of Chinese businessmen.

Fourthly, the traditional isolation of Chinese communities, a very strict focus primarily on supporting “their own” in all areas, especially in business. A Chinese hired by a Russian entrepreneur will, as a rule, remain loyal to him only as a last resort. For example, when conducting business negotiations with compatriots, he will first remember that he is Chinese, and only then that he works for a Russian company. A Chinese businessman in Russia, if given the right to choose, will hire only compatriots. The Chinese, by the way, generally prefer to produce everything themselves, if they can do it.

Fifthly, a “translucent” border. This factor makes it possible for the influx of illegal labor and the creation of a “black market” for Chinese labor in Russia. In many ways, this, together with traditional Chinese isolation, is the growing criminal component of the Chinese presence in our country.

Sixth, the geopolitical plans of Moscow, which today, together with Beijing, opposes American dominance in the modern world. Let’s be extremely frank: today it is possible to create at least a relative balance for the United States only if there are good partnerships with China.

This is indirectly evidenced by Washington's position itself. The concept of a “Russian threat” has long been out of use among serious politicians and analysts in the United States. Some people, of course, are annoyed by our country’s desire to regain its place among the leading countries of the world, but few expect danger from it. But the “Chinese threat” is considered by American experts quite seriously. It even seems to me that echoes of this attitude are also affecting the discussion in Russia regarding the prospects for relations with China. Otherwise, why are there so many negative myths about our southern neighbor in the domestic press?

Seventh, the very low level of Russian small and medium-sized businesses, leading to a lack of competition without government support. Visiting Chinese often simply have no one to compete with, so they are gradually strengthening their positions in the Far East and in the border regions of Siberia. And this situation will continue until the Russian authorities finally begin to really support their home-grown businessmen instead of hindering them.

Finally, and only eighth, cautious support from official Beijing and Chinese border authorities.

Does Beijing need the Far East and Siberia?

Does Beijing have a strategy for expansion into Russia? There is a strategy for the development of bilateral relations and a clear understanding of immediate and medium-term goals. Mass migration of the population to the north with the aim of annexing new territories to China is clearly not included in their number. There are much more important tasks: cooperation with Moscow to neutralize the trend towards a unipolar world, solving the Taiwan problem, ousting the United States from nearby regions of Asia, our own, very contradictory and complex economic development, very big problems in domestic politics, very big problems in relations with the West ... The list goes on.

In general, Beijing is not at all interested in creating a situation when Russia begins to collapse and the opportunity is created for truly massive expansion of the Chinese into its territory with subsequent geopolitical decisions. Beijing needs a strong Russia now and for the foreseeable future.

Hence the approach to the migration of their population: let them work in Russia, since this is directly related to the increase in the export of Chinese goods, the import of necessary raw materials, as well as the influx of foreign currency, which in general will contribute to the development of China.

Therefore, the fundamental stubbornness of opponents of rapprochement with China is either surprising or alarming. The reasons for this persistence are difficult to explain by temporary delusion or ordinary rational arguments. It is more likely that the majority of those who fear the Chinese are influenced either by very rational motives or by factors of an irrational order.

What's ahead?

And here the question immediately arises of what this migration will be like in the future. If our country is short-sighted in this matter, then the influx of Chinese labor will remain unregulated and dependent only on the wishes of the “other side.” Less or more - depending on the economic situation, and always a game without rules or, more precisely, according to someone else's rules. Our recent history and our current modernity have already given many examples of this, and not only with the Chinese.

Everyone understands perfectly well that this is a path to nowhere, and it will not bring anything good to Russia, and will give relatively little to China itself. This is the road to outbreaks of xenophobia among the Russian population and the very sad events that follow. This actually undermines the opportunity not just to restore, but to establish the Russian economy in the regions bordering China. Because the Chinese are not consciously going to restore the Russian economy; they have other, selfish goals.

If the Russian authorities finally determine a specific strategy in migration matters and strictly adhere to it, then the situation will look completely different. In some places, a kind of Russian-Chinese economic symbiosis will arise, which, in general, will be in the interests of the population of both sides. Somewhere other forms of cooperation will appear, which it is advisable to foresee in advance and which must be strictly adhered to. In fact, this is what the state exists for.

If the second option is chosen, then there will not really be a massive influx of Chinese migrants to Russia. The Chinese will not want to adhere to the restrictions they will have to face and, for the most part, will focus mainly on trade. Their goals are already obvious: import of raw materials and export of everything that can be sold to Russia. This is the sphere of private business, which represents the vast majority of migrants.

The sphere of government business is several orders of magnitude higher. These are oil and gas imports, military-industrial cooperation. Here the Chinese will be consistent to the extreme. Their state and parastatal companies represent a power that is hardly properly assessed by public opinion and, hopefully, not underestimated by government agencies. They have already shown Russia their strength in Kazakhstan, bypassing our oil workers in the fight for lucrative contracts. They have already begun investing in the Russian fuel and energy complex.

And now about the risks: the isolation of Chinese communities

History shows that Chinese communities are unusually slow to assimilate into the local population. Russian experience shows that this line of behavior is not accepted by the majority of the population. Eastern Slavs may respect a foreign culture, but do not accept the isolation of migrant groups. They see this as a threat. In many ways, the growth of xenophobia in the Russian provinces towards recent “newcomers” from the Caucasus is connected precisely with this circumstance.

Chinese migration represents people engaged in business as part of primary capital accumulation. From the outside, they look like energetic, cynical and incomprehensible people who either “disdain” the locals, or are so “different” that they cannot communicate with them, and therefore do not evoke feelings of sympathy. Hence, in many respects, the increase in irritation among Russians towards the Chinese, which is clearly recorded by all sociological studies.

These are rather irrational motives for the threat. There are also rational ones. In the eyes of the “locals,” a community of “newcomers” isolating itself for unknown reasons will pose a danger. Local authorities will experience the same feelings over time, regardless of their degree of corruption.

This does not mean that the Chinese in Russia, in addition to long-standing traditions, have no other reasons for isolation. Surveys show that there are two main threats: the police and xenophobic youth. Some fine them mercilessly or, to call a spade a spade, extort money, while others often beat them.

The overall result, however, remains the same: Chinese communities are closed and well-organized groups of migrants oriented towards private enterprise. They actually have no contact with the authorities, they operate somewhere in the area between the legal and shadow economy, and in fact are always associated with their own crime, which almost always operates within the community itself. They themselves do not want to get closer to Russian society.

At the same time, the prevailing opinion that all Chinese coming to Russia are a closely knit community is clearly incorrect. In fact, we have open competition between different communities, sometimes occurring outside the law.

We are facing a different work and entrepreneurial culture. And this is provided that the majority have European standards in their heads, or at least an idea of them.

Shock is inevitable. And it’s better to prepare for it in advance. But we have no alternative.

China has long laid claim to a much more significant role than the one it currently plays in world politics and economics. Although even now the Chinese economy is one of the most dynamic and rapidly developing, China accounts for about 15% of world GDP (this is third place after the European Union and the United States), Beijing is seeking to strengthen the country’s position even more. One of the ways to strengthen China’s position is to implement the “One Belt, One Road” concept or simply the “New Silk Road” concept.

Xi Jinping announced the concept of “One Belt, One Road” back in 2013. It is already clear that this concept has become the basis guiding Chinese foreign policy for the coming decades. By 2049, the centenary of the People's Republic of China, the country should firmly establish its position as a world leader. This goal is set by the leadership of the CPC and, apparently, it can really be achieved. As part of achieving this goal, China is building relations with the states of Eurasia based on the concept of “One Belt - One Road”. First of all, China is interested in developing relations with the countries of Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Eastern Europe.

In fact, the idea of uniting economically less developed states around China arose a long time ago, during the reign of Mao Zedong. Chairman Mao divided the then world into the “first world” (capitalist countries of Europe, the USA), the “second world” (socialist camp) and the “third world” - developing countries. China, according to Mao’s concept, was supposed to lead the movement of the “third world” countries opposing the United States, Europe and the Soviet Union. Now the Soviet Union no longer exists, and Russia is not a competitor to China. Beijing's main task is to “overtake” the United States, and to achieve this task, the PRC is striving to establish relations with as many states of the world as possible. Eurasian countries are of interest to China, first of all, for reasons of providing economic corridors to Europe. In the future, it is with Europe that China will develop relations, competing with the United States for the European market. But this will require economic corridors through which Chinese goods will be sent to EU countries. For the construction of such corridors, a return to the concept of the Silk Road is envisaged - from China through Central Asia and the Caucasus - to Eastern Europe and further to Western Europe.

The very idea of the New Silk Road is a desire to reconstruct the Great Silk Road, which existed since the 2nd century. BC e. The most important trade route of antiquity and the Middle Ages, the Great Silk Road passed through many countries in Asia and Eastern Europe. However, at that time the Silk Road was only a trade transit route from China to Europe, and the New Silk Road is seen as a tool for strengthening China’s influence on other states. With the help of the New Silk Road, Beijing seeks to modernize the entire economic and trade system of Eurasia. Naturally, first of all, this transformation will affect the countries of Central Asia - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Chinese diplomats and businessmen are already actively working here, and ties between Beijing and the former Soviet republics of Central Asia are growing stronger.

China has begun organizing a worldwide system of transport corridors, which, according to the Chinese, should connect China with the whole world - the countries of Central Asia, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and Oceania. As part of the New Silk Road, it is planned to build roads and railways, open sea and air routes, lay pipelines and power lines. China plans to bring 4.4 billion people into its orbit of influence through the New Silk Road - more than half of the current population of the Earth.

China includes the following in the development of land routes of the New Silk Road: 1) construction of railways to Georgia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, India, Myanmar, Thailand and Malaysia. The idea of building a powerful railway line includes creating a tunnel under the Bosphorus Strait and organizing ferries across the Caspian Sea. The northern corridor to Europe will go through the territory of Kazakhstan and Russia, the central corridor - through Central Asia and the Caucasus - Azerbaijan and Georgia, and the southern corridor has a different direction - through Indochina and Indonesia to the Indian Ocean and further - to the countries of the African continent, which China has already spread its political and economic influence. These routes should connect all of Asia, but the main task remains to ensure uninterrupted communication between China and other countries of the continent.

How the New Silk Road project influences world politics is best demonstrated by the current situation in the Middle East. Initially, China planned to organize an economic corridor through Iran and further through Iraq and Syria to the Mediterranean Sea. That is, Syria was seen as a very important link in the Silk Road system. However, this path bypassed Turkey, an important player in Middle Eastern politics. Ankara has long been making plans for Turkey's role in economic exchanges between China and Europe, but the construction of an economic corridor through Syria would leave Turkey on the periphery of the New Silk Road. China was not interested in organizing communication through Turkey also because Turkey has always played a key role in supporting Uyghur separatists operating in Western China (the historical region of East Turkestan, now the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of the People's Republic of China). In addition, the construction of a corridor through Syria seemed more profitable to the Chinese leadership in economic terms.

In order for plans to organize a Syrian corridor not to be realized, it was necessary to shake up the political situation in Syria to such a state that any transit through the territory of this country would not be possible. The war in Syria has become an excellent way to block the One Belt, One Road project in the Mediterranean direction. Since the “revolutions” in the countries of North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula - the so-called. Almost seven years have passed since the Arab Spring, but the situation in Syria has not stabilized. The war has become protracted, and the actions of armed groups make any attempts to build land routes through this country impossible. We can say that China’s opponents have achieved their goal - building a corridor through Syria is now impossible.

What path remains for China? The Syrian corridor is being replaced by a corridor from Central Asia (Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) through the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan and further to Georgia, Batumi, and then to the Black and Mediterranean Seas. China is showing great interest in developing economic relations with Georgia and Azerbaijan, which indicates Beijing's far-reaching plans for these Transcaucasian republics. In turn, both Azerbaijan and Georgia are also interested in allowing the Chinese corridor through their territories, since this will allow them to significantly improve their economic situation, including through the construction of infrastructure and attracting investment.

At the beginning of 2018, a free trade agreement between Tbilisi and Beijing comes into force. Georgia has a similar agreement with the European Union. At the same time, Tbilisi, despite long-standing contradictions in relations with Moscow, seeks to receive dividends from cooperation with the Eurasian Economic Union, in partnership with which the “One Belt - One Road” project is involved.

A number of Eastern European countries are also interested in developing relations with China. Gradually, Eastern European politicians are beginning to understand that in the European Union they will in any case be destined for a secondary place. The positions of the countries of Eastern Europe are not taken into account by European “heavyweights” when discussing even the most important issues, for example, the placement of migrants. In fact, the countries of Eastern Europe and the Balkan Peninsula are considered by the European Union as resource territories from which cheap labor can be drawn. In addition, the entry of these countries into the European Union and NATO has always been seen as preventing the spread of Russian influence over them. USA and Western Europe in 1989-1990. They didn’t win a major victory over the USSR, pushing Moscow out of Eastern Europe, only to then give up their positions.

Hungary plays a very active role in the development of relations between China and the countries of Eastern and Central Europe. Budapest is a modern “dissident” of the European Union. We know that on a number of fundamental issues Hungary takes a different position from the European Union. This applies to migration policy, attitudes towards same-sex marriage, and sanctions against Russia. It is not surprising that Budapest is seeking to develop an increasingly active relationship with China. The 16+1 summit was recently held in Budapest, the sixth in a row. Representatives of China traditionally took part in the summit. What is “16+1” - these are sixteen countries of Eastern and Central Europe, the Balkan Peninsula - Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Macedonia, Croatia, Slovenia, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, Czech Republic, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Plus one is plus China. Many summit participants are members of the European Union and NATO, but they do not hide their desire to cooperate with China. For Beijing this is another diplomatic victory, but for Brussels it is a cause for concern.

The growing influence of China on the countries of Eastern and Central Europe cannot but worry the leadership of the European Union. During the Cold War, China had virtually no influence over the countries of Eastern Europe under Soviet patronage. For some time, Beijing cooperated only with Albania, Romania and Yugoslavia. In the 1990s, Eastern Europe came under the political and economic influence of the United States and the European Union. However, now the situation is changing dramatically.

Beijing is attracting Eastern European countries with promises of multibillion-dollar investments in the development of national economies. First of all, we are talking about investments in the development of transport infrastructure and energy modernization. Investments are not only money and new opportunities, they also mean new jobs, and the problem of unemployment in most countries of Eastern Europe and the Balkan Peninsula is very acute. Therefore, regional leaders are very favorable towards the Chinese project.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban even noted that China can provide the countries of Eastern and Central Europe with opportunities that cannot be realized relying only on the resources of the European Union. And indeed it is. The key players of the European Union - France, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands - are no longer able to finance solutions to numerous problems in the countries of Eastern Europe and the Balkan Peninsula. Moreover, they are not seriously concerned about solving these problems, as was clearly demonstrated by the story of the placement of migrants from the countries of the Middle East and North Africa, which caused serious contradictions between the leadership of the European Union and the countries of Eastern Europe. China is already investing billions of dollars in Eastern European countries, and the amount of investment will only grow.

Naturally, Brussels is not very happy with this behavior of the Eastern European states. But what can be done? The world is changing, and China plays a very important role in these changes. More and more countries are beginning to understand that focusing on China in the current global political and economic situation is much more profitable than remaining eternal satellites of the United States and the European Union. Even more frightening for the leaders of the European Union is the fact that Western European countries (here we are talking about the political and cultural concept of “Western Europe”) are increasingly interested in developing relations with China. For example, Austria advocates that the Chinese “New Silk Road” must pass through its territory, fully understanding all the benefits and positive consequences of this step.

We see that China is methodically and successfully moving towards achieving its goal - expanding its economic and then political influence to the countries of Asia, Europe and Africa. The New Silk Road is just one way to expand this influence. But what can the United States do in an attempt to prevent Chinese “dominance” from asserting itself?