China is preparing a population explosion. Population of China and demographic situation in the country Impact on GDP

China is a universally recognized demographic giant that has no equal. Since ancient times, China has rightly been considered one of the most numerous states, which by definition cannot be overtaken.

However, at the beginning of the twenty-first century, the situation in China is no longer as clear-cut as it previously seemed. State policy in the last third of the twentieth century became very strict, especially the “One family - one child” program. China, against the backdrop of a global demographic trend, began to lose population. And this led not only to positive, but also to negative consequences.

Implementation of the decree on small families

The Chinese communist leadership pursued a strict demographic policy throughout the second half of the twentieth century, but it became especially tough in the seventies of the last century. Such actions of the state are explained by the fact that at that time there were too many large families in China. Because of this, the economy of the entire country deteriorated, and the standard of living of the large population fell. It was very difficult to support large families - there simply weren’t enough square meters of housing for them even for the most modest life. Moreover, such families needed state care, social benefits, and so on.

All the best for a child

For young families with one child, all the best that the state could offer at that time was planned. But for parents who accidentally or intentionally had more children, the penalty in the form of a fine corresponded to several average annual incomes of the region of permanent residence. Unlucky parents literally had to ransom their children.

The activities of the state in China, expressed in the slogan “One family, one child,” amounted to reducing the population by 2000 to a total of 1.2 billion people. Administrative actions were promoted, contraception was actively introduced, and abortions became widespread. This is how they fought the “hateful past.”

And in principle, it has become very difficult to maintain such a population. Then statisticians calculated that the number of Chinese would soon become such that the country simply would not survive. It was also difficult to introduce the policy because it was traditional in China to have a large family. And since there are no state pensions for the population, it was up to their grown-up daughters and sons to support their elderly parents, which is why they gave birth to three or four or more children.

Causes of the “baby boom” in the 20th century.

China has been aware of the problem of overpopulation since the era of the samurai. They actively pursued a policy of expanding land holdings, and their spouses developed a family structure and gave birth to heirs. The Chinese tradition of large families began to be actively cultivated after the bloody Second World War. At that time, the country's authorities, realizing that the world population had decreased during the war era, and in China it was necessary to increase the economic level, began to adhere to the tactics of large families. The appearance of 3-4 children in a family was especially cultivated.

However, when the number of Chinese began to increase at too rapid a pace, attempts were gradually made to slow down this rate, and various restrictive measures were introduced for large families. And the most painful measure of influence on the current demographic situation in the country was the “One family - one child” tactic. The policy was officially adopted as a government policy in 1979.

Chinese statistics

The policy of reducing the birth rate in China already at that time had certain hidden flaws and shortcomings. Everything was determined by the specifics of population accounting. In China, there is no registration process for newborn children, as in Russia, and registration is carried out only by the number of relatives who died in the family over the past calendar year. However, this approach exacerbates the problem of the exact size of the population in China, which is now believed to be different from the available official data.

The state policy “One family - one child” immediately encountered difficulties in the form of a gender problem. In China, as a purely Asian country, the attitude towards women is not as positive as in Europe. In Asia, women are an order of magnitude lower socially than men. Because of this, when the first-born in the family was a girl, her father and mother sought by any means (including not entirely legal) to obtain official permission to have another child. The parents tried to get rid of the pregnancy as a girl, because they understood that the grown-up daughter would have to bear full responsibility for her elderly parents on her fragile shoulders. As a result of all this, a situation arose where it was the authorities who decided who should have another child, and who would have enough of one baby.

Economic consequences

In developing the “One family - one child” policy, the state still received some positive aspects. The authorities spend significantly less resources on an only child than on several. Because of this, there is no acute problem of increasing wages, and as a result, cheap labor continues to exist despite the sufficiently high working capacity of the Chinese. The age composition of the population has changed, and the financing policy for Chinese families has also changed slightly. In addition, women, who were not required to stay in the family for a long time to raise children, could pay more attention to work in enterprises, which also had a positive impact on the favorable economic development of the state. And the authorities themselves no longer needed to look for resources to feed and educate several children at once.

These aspects of life had a positive aspect, and at some time the country even found itself in ideal conditions, when there were few minor residents and there were still few old people. But in the end, the “One family - one child” course gradually revealed its negative sides. Problems arose that we had not even thought about.

Excess of old people

During the period of a small number of elderly residents, the authorities did not count on what would happen in the near future, and almost everyone was satisfied with the “One Family, One Child” law. But time passed. Negative aspects emerged at the beginning of the twenty-first century: the age composition of the population has changed, and there are many more elderly residents. These people now had to be looked after, but there was no one to do this. Able-bodied Chinese earned a living, but there were not enough young people.

The authorities were also not prepared to provide for the elderly. Pension payments turned out to be insufficient. Because of this, even after reaching the age of 70, some residents continued to work to support themselves.

The problem of elderly Chinese living alone has worsened. A new, rather difficult responsibility has appeared for the structure of social services to monitor the elderly. It often happened that there was one person in the family who was no longer able to cope with the responsibilities of the owner and the household chores that arose.

Children

Another negative consequence of China's demographic policy has been the pedagogical problem of raising growing children. Of course, there are significantly more opportunities to raise an only child well and provide him with the necessary means and resources than to do this for several. But it soon became noticeable that the children had become too selfish. There is a known case when a mother became pregnant with another child, and her teenage daughter presented her with a condition: either the mother has an immediate abortion, or the girl kills herself. This behavior was associated with an understandable selfish feeling of enjoying parental care and not sharing it with another child.

The problem of selective (gender) abortions

Demographic indicators were influenced by the attitude of the inhabitants of the Middle Kingdom towards women, as well as the existing limit on the number of children in a family. It is clear that the father and mother wanted them to have a boy. But it is impossible to order the gender, so some parents began to look for the possibility of determining the gender during pregnancy in order to get rid of the child if it turned out that the couple was expecting a girl.

Illegal medical services for performing ultrasounds to determine the sex of the fetus arose, although this was prohibited by the state. The “One family - one child” course ultimately provoked an increase in selective (gender) abortions, which have become commonplace among women in China (the country is still the world leader in the number of abortions).

Women's question

So, in China the situation has become stronger: one child per family. Has this policy had a good or bad effect on the status of women? After a sharp increase in the birth rate of boys, the number of girls in China has dropped significantly. Initially this situation did not seem particularly problematic. After all, it is much more “useful” to raise a boy who in old age will be the breadwinner for his parents. The policy, even in some ruling circles, received a different name: “One family - one child with higher education.” Father and mother were proud of the opportunity to give their son a good education, since they had the means to educate him.

But later it turned out that there were few girls, and there were too many representatives of the stronger sex. Thus, another acute problem arose - finding a wife. In China, because of this, non-traditional sex began to actively develop. Some statistical studies show that young people who enter into same-sex relationships do not reject traditional marriage if such an opportunity exists. Today, the male population exceeds the female population by twenty million people.

Hong Kong

The “One family - one child” policy dictates quotas for the birth of a baby. Therefore, a significant part of Chinese women who decided to have another child had to go to the neighboring country - Hong Kong - for childbirth. There the laws are less strict, and there have never been any birth quotas. However, the problem appeared in the smallest state. After all, the number of Chinese women is quite large, and the number of maternity hospital beds is designed for the female population of Hong Kong. As a result, not all local mothers had the opportunity to give birth to their children in maternity hospitals - there were always no free places there. Officials from both countries began to oppose “mother tourism.”

Changing the restriction policy

Summing up the impact of China's demographic policy, officials began to realize that they needed to somehow soften the content of the law and provide the opportunity for families to have more than just one child. As a result, this standard was canceled in the fall of 2015.

The Chinese government has adopted a new regulation allowing families to have two children. According to officials, this will make the problem of mass selective abortions less acute, over time the problem of the predominance of boys will disappear, and some families will be able to raise girls as well. Finally, there will be a less significant decrease in the young population, and parents will be helped in their old age by their two children. It must be borne in mind that not all women can still have children at the time of the policy change; some will remain with an only child. All these nuances indicate that the demographic situation will not change dramatically with the adoption of the 2015 law. Although the cancellation of the course itself can already be considered a small victory.

“One family - one child”: cancellation of the policy

Of course, there are rumors around the world about the cruelty of the Chinese authorities (partially true) within the framework of politics. The situation improved slightly when, from the beginning of 2016, the state policy for one child per family was completely abolished. There are several reasons for the government's softness. For example, this law began to actively counteract the country's economic opportunities. Difficulties also arose in the moral sphere.

Future

Some politicians and public figures are wary of the latest changes, as they admit the possibility of a baby boom and a significant increase in demographic indicators. But in principle, there is no need to fear a sharp deterioration in the demographic situation. The problem is that recently (since 2013) there has already been one relaxation of the state policy - it was possible to have two children in some families where the husband or wife was the only child in the family. Consequently, the Chinese were already somewhat prepared for the change in policy.

For the families of young Chinese, the cancellation is a wind of change in their favor. After all, they were officially allowed to give birth not to lonely egoists, but to two members of society who know how to live in a team.

The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced on January 19 that the total number of people born in China in 2015 was 16.55 million, which is 320 thousand less than in 2014. 2015 was the second year after the Chinese authorities introduced the policy “parents who were the only child in the family can have two children,” but the birth rate this year did not increase, but, on the contrary, decreased, contrary to demographers’ forecasts. /website/

Surprising Chinese demographic statistics

According to Chinese media, on January 19, the National Bureau of Statistics released data on the state of China's national economy and the demographic situation in the country. In 2015, the total population of China amounted to 1 billion 374 million 620 thousand people and, compared to last year, increased by 6.8 million. At the same time, the birth rate was 16.55 million people, which is 320 thousand less than in 2014.

Since January 2014, every province of the PRC has introduced a new demographic policy: “parents who were the only child in the family have the right to have two children.” Previously, forecasts were made that in 2015 the birth rate will continue to increase - to 17 or even 18 million people. However, last year the birth rate in China did not increase, but, on the contrary, fell, and this caused great bewilderment among many.

Demographers Huang Wenzheng and Liang Jianzhang made a joint analysis, which was published in the online publication Caixin. They argue that the decline in fertility is due to two factors. First, the number of women of childbearing age is declining. Secondly, among women of childbearing age, the number of people wishing to give birth is decreasing. The increase in the birth rate that this demographic policy should contribute to is significantly less than the reduction caused by the two above factors.

According to demographers, the total fertility rate in China is approximately 1.4, which is significantly lower than the generation rate of 2.1, and is classified as an ultra-low fertility rate.

Since January 2016, China has fully implemented a new policy stating that spouses have the right to have two children without any restrictions.

The two-child policy received a cool reception

Demographer Yao Meixiong says the decline in birth rates in 2015 indicates that the overall desire to have children has weakened among Chinese people. If the implementation of the two-child policy does not take a set of measures to stimulate the birth rate, then there is a possibility that the Chinese will receive it coldly, says Yao.

Demographer Li Jianxin of Peking University also believes that the lack of interest in the unlimited two-child policy is inevitable, since today's Chinese marrying and having children were born in the 80s and 90s. This generation has both ideas about having children and the cost of their birth and upbringing that are completely different from those of their parents’ generation.

Gu Baochang of the People's University of China, in his recent article in Phoenix Weekly, wrote that when a study was carried out in different places in China to find out what the effect of the implementation of the limited two-child policy was, they were amazed to find that, regardless of the eastern Whether it's China or the West, city or countryside, the reaction to this policy everywhere has been unexpectedly indifferent. There were very few spouses who applied for the birth of a second child. In the course of the study, Gu Baochang discovered that couples who had a second child had one extremely important trait - the parents of these spouses were able to help them take care of the children.

According to the demographer, in an environment where the demographic policy of “having fewer but better children” has become the main trend in Chinese society and the adoption of a strategy to fully implement the two-child policy, the CPC State Committee for Health and Planned Childbirth continues to emphasize that the birth of a third child is strictly is prohibited and fines continue to be levied for it. This is completely inconsistent with the requirements of the times, says Gu Baochang.

Huang Wenzheng and Liang Jianzhang also believe that in the face of a dangerously low birth rate in the PRC, it is necessary to immediately abolish birth control and begin to stimulate it as quickly as possible. Even if an unlimited two-child policy were now implemented everywhere, China would still be the only place on the globe with the most severe birth control.

The dire consequences of the one-child policy

Data released on January 19 by the National Bureau of Statistics also shows that at the end of 2015, China had a male population of 704.14 million and a female population of 670.48 million. There were 33.66 million more men than women.

The Communist Party's implementation of the one-child policy for 35 years has continuously caused social problems and brought a lot of suffering to ordinary people. A severe imbalance in the proportion between the male and female population is one of its consequences. This caused an increase in the number of bachelors.

In addition, the increasing aging population, “acute labor shortage” and other problems are becoming more threatening in China every year. In April last year, Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei noted that the number of people over 65 years of age had increased from 8.1% in 2011 to the current 10.1%. The working population began to decline sharply. At the beginning of 2012, it decreased by 3 million people (people aged 16-59 years) and then continued to fall.

Fudan University professor Wang Feng told CNN that when people look back in the future, they will see that the one-child policy is the biggest mistake of the CCP in modern history. He considers it ineffective and unnecessary, since in the 80s. China's birth rate has already slowed.

The Chinese authorities will consider a bill on one-time payments for the birth of a second child. For 34 years, until 2016, China had a “one family, one child” policy, which led to a reduction in the working population. In Russia, the situation with the working-age population is even worse.

On January 1, 2016, China abolished the “One family, one child” demographic policy. As a result, in 2016 the birth rate in China increased by 1.3 million children compared to the previous year. In total, 17.8 million babies were born in China last year, reports People's Daily.

However, not all Chinese couples strive to have a second child. In most cases, this is due to financial difficulties. According to opinion polls, over 60% of families abandoned a second child due to lack of funds.

According to the Chinese authorities, the subsidies will “push” married couples to have a second child and partially offset the costs of it. Thus, the country’s demographic policy will take the opposite direction: from fines for the birth of a second child to subsidy payments.

The population of China will be 1.004 billion

In 2015, the UN published a report on demographic issues. According to it, by 2100 the population of China will decrease to 1.004 billion people. Currently, this figure is 1.38 billion people. The UN named gender imbalance as the main reason for the decline in fertility. In the next decade, the number of Chinese women aged 23-30 will decrease by 40%.

The shortage of women in China is a consequence of the one-child policy. The financial support of elderly parents in the future fell on the shoulders of their children, which forced many couples to refuse to have girls. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, at the end of 2015, there were 704.14 million males and 670.48 million females in China. There were 33.66 million more men than women. As a result, many Chinese men have become interested in brides from other countries. Marriage agencies for Chinese citizens have been created in Russia, Kazakhstan and other countries.

The population is aging

For decades, with the birth rate controlled, China's large working-age population has allowed China's economy to grow rapidly. According to the Center for Demographic Research at the People's University of China, the working-age population in the next 15 years will fall from the current 911 million to 824 million people (about 57%). “China’s once inexhaustible source of labor is drying up,” said Liang Zhongtang, a researcher at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences.

According to the Center for Demography, in the summer of 2016 there were 222 million old people in the country out of a population of 1.38 billion people. By 2020, this figure will increase to 253 million, and by 2030 to 365 million, which will be 25.2% of the total population (one in four Chinese).

Along with the aging of the population, the sphere of social services is developing in China: nursing homes are being created, various companies offer care for the elderly at home, etc. From 2016 to 2020, the Chinese will spend a total of over 10 trillion yuan (more than $1.5 trillion) on social care, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers experts.

It's even worse in Russia

In 2016, the number of elderly people in Russia amounted to 43 million people out of a population of 146 million people, which is almost 30% of the population (recall that in China the alarm is sounding at 16% of the elderly, by 2030 - 25%).

According to Rosstat, the working-age population in Russia at the beginning of 2016 was 84.8 million people, that is, 58% of the population (in China this figure is now 66%).

In 2017, the Russian authorities tripled spending on maternal and child health care (from 17.5 to 6.1 billion rubles) and froze the indexation of maternity capital until 2020.

And China is growing rapidly every year. At the moment, the number of people inhabiting the Earth is about 7.2 billion. But, as UN experts predict, by 2050 this figure could reach 9.6 billion.

Countries in the world with the largest populations according to 2016 estimates

Let's look at the 10 countries with the highest populations in the world, as of 2016:

China - about 1.374 billion.
India - approximately 1.283 billion.
USA - 322.694 million
Indonesia - 252.164 million
Brazil - 205.521 million
Pakistan - 192 million
Nigeria - 173.615 million
Bangladesh - 159.753 million
Russia - 146.544 million
Japan - 127.130 million

As can be seen from the list, the populations of India and China are the largest and make up more than 36% of the entire world community. But, as UN experts report, the demographic picture will change significantly by 2028. If China now occupies the leading position, then in 11-12 years it will be more than in the Celestial Empire.

In just a year, each of these countries is projected to have a population of 1.45 billion. But the rate of demographic growth in China will begin to decline, while in India population growth will continue until the 50s of this century.

What is the population density in China?

The population of China as of 2016 is 1,374,440,000 people. Despite the large territory of the country, the PRC is not densely populated. Dispersal is uneven due to a number of geographical features. The average population density per 1 square kilometer is 138 people. Developed European countries such as Poland, Portugal, France and Switzerland have approximately the same indicators.

The population of India in 2016 is less than that of China, by about 90 million, but its density is 2.5 times higher and equal to approximately 363 people per 1 square kilometer.

If the territory of the People's Republic of China is not completely populated, why is there talk about overpopulation? Indeed, average statistical data cannot reflect the full essence of the problem. In China, there are regions where the population density per 1 square kilometer is in the thousands, for example: in Hong Kong this figure is 6,500 people, and in Macau - 21,000. What is the reason for this phenomenon? In fact there are several of them:

climatic conditions;
geographical location of a particular territory;
economic component of individual regions.

If we compare India and China, the territory of the second state is much larger. But the western and northern parts of the country are actually uninhabited. Only 6% of the population lives in these provinces, which occupy about 50% of the entire territory of the republic. The mountains of Tibet and the Taklamakan and Gobi deserts are considered practically deserted.

The population of China in 2016 is concentrated in large numbers in the fertile regions of the country, which are located in the North China Plain and near the large waterways of the Pearl and Yangtze.

Largest metropolitan areas in China

Huge cities with millions of people are a common occurrence in China. The largest metropolitan areas are:

Shanghai. This city has 24 million inhabitants. This is where the world's largest port is located.
Beijing is the capital of China. The government of the state and other administrative organizations are located here. The metropolis is home to about 21 million people.

Cities with a population of over a million include Harbin, Tianjin and Guangzhou.

Peoples of China

The bulk of the inhabitants of the Celestial Empire are the Han people (91.5% of the total population). There are also 55 national minorities living in China. The most numerous of them are:

Zhuang - 16 million
Manchus - 10 million
Tibetans - 5 million

The small Loba people number no more than 3,000 people.

The problem of food supply

The populations of India and China are the largest on the planet, which creates an acute problem of food supply for these regions.

In China, the amount of arable land is approximately 8% of the total territory. At the same time, certain ones are contaminated with waste and are unsuitable for cultivation. Within the country itself, the food problem cannot be solved due to the colossal shortage of food products. Therefore, Chinese investors are massively buying up agricultural and food production facilities, and also renting fertile land in other countries (Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan).

The republic's leadership is directly involved in solving the problem. In 2013 alone, approximately $12 billion was invested in acquiring food industry businesses around the world.

The population of India in 2016 exceeded 1.2 billion, and the average density increased to 363 people per 1 square kilometer. Such indicators significantly increase the load on cultivated lands. It is extremely difficult to provide food to such a mass of people, and the problem is getting worse every year. A large number of the Indian population lives below the poverty line; the state has to implement demographic policies in order to somehow influence the current situation. Attempts to stop the rapid growth of the population have been introduced since the middle of the last century.

And India is aimed at regulating the population growth in these countries.

Features of demographic policy in China

China's overpopulation and the constant threat of a food and economic crisis force the country's government to take decisive measures to prevent such situations. For this purpose, a birth control plan was developed. A reward system was introduced if there was only 1 child in a family, and those who wanted to afford 2-3 children had to pay hefty fines. Not all residents of the country could afford such luxury. Although the innovation did not apply. They were allowed to have two and sometimes three children.

The number of men in China outnumbers the female population, so the birth of girls is encouraged.

Despite all the measures taken by the state, the problem of overpopulation remains unresolved.

The introduction of demographic policy under the slogan “One family - one child” led to negative consequences. Today in China there is an aging of the nation, that is, there are about 8% of people over 65 years old, while the norm is 7%. Since the state does not have a pension system, caring for the elderly falls on the shoulders of their children. It is especially difficult for older people who live with disabled children or have no children at all.

Another major problem in China is gender imbalance. For many years, the number of boys has outnumbered girls. For every 100 females there are about 120 males. The reasons for this problem are the ability to determine the sex of the fetus in the first trimester of pregnancy and numerous abortions. According to statistics, it is expected that in 3-4 years the number of bachelors in the country will reach 25 million.

Population policy in India

Over the last century, the population of China and India has grown significantly, which is why the problem of family planning in these countries has been addressed at the state level. Initially, the demographic policy program included birth control to strengthen the well-being of families. Among the many developing ones, she was one of the first to tackle this issue. The program began operating in 1951. To control the birth rate, contraception and sterilization were used, which were carried out voluntarily. Men who agreed to such an operation were encouraged by the state, receiving monetary rewards.

The male population outnumbers the female population. Since the program was ineffective, it was tightened in 1976. Men who had two or more children were subjected to forced sterilization.

In the 50s of the last century in India, women were allowed to marry from the age of 15, and men from the age of 22. In 1978, this standard was increased to 18 and 23 years, respectively.

In 1986, drawing on the experience of China, India established a norm of no more than 2 children per family.

In 2000, significant changes were made in demographic policy. The main focus is on promoting the improvement of family living conditions by reducing the number of children.

India. Large cities and nationalities

Almost a third of India's total population lives in the country's big cities. The largest metropolitan areas are:

Bombay (15 million).
Kolkata (13 million).
Delhi (11 million).
Madras (6 million).

India is a multinational country, with more than 2,000 different peoples and ethnic groups living here. The most numerous are:

Hindustani;
Bengalis;
Marathi;
Tamils and many others.

Small peoples include:

naga;
Manipuri;
garo;
Mizo;
tipera.

About 7% of the country's inhabitants belong to backward tribes leading an almost primitive way of life.

Why is India's population policy less successful than China's?

The socio-economic characteristics of India and China differ significantly from each other. This is the reason for the failed demographic policy of the Hindus. Let's consider the main factors due to which it is not possible to significantly influence population growth:

A third of Indians are considered poor.
The level of education in the country is very low.
Compliance with various religious dogmas.
Early marriages according to thousand-year-old traditions.

The most interesting thing is that Kerala has the lowest population growth rate in the country. The same region is considered the most educated. Human literacy is 91%. Every woman in the country has 5 children, while women in Kerala have less than two.

According to experts, within 2 years the populations of India and China will be approximately the same.

TASS DOSSIER. On October 29, Chinese authorities decided to lift the rule prohibiting having more than one child in a family. Now spouses are allowed to have two children.

The birth control policy - "one family - one child" - was introduced in the PRC in 1979, when the state faced the threat of a demographic explosion. Prohibitory measures were caused by a shortage of land, water and energy resources, as well as the inability of the state to provide the population with broad access to education and medical services. Campaigns to reduce population growth since the 1950s have not brought tangible results - between 1949 and 1976 it increased from 540 million to 940 million people.

The goal of the “one family, one child” policy was to limit the birth rate so that the population of the PRC would not exceed 1.2 billion people by the year 2000. The authorities have banned married couples in cities from having more than one child (excluding cases of multiple pregnancies). Only representatives of national minorities and rural residents were allowed to have a second child if the first-born was a girl.

Late marriages and late births were promoted in the country, a system of fines and rewards was introduced, and forced sterilization measures were used. The result of restrictive measures was a decrease in the average number of children born to one woman from 5.8 to 1.8.

In the 2000s, restrictive measures were somewhat relaxed. In 2007, permission for a second child was received by parents who themselves were the only children in the family. In addition, national minorities were allowed to have two children in the city and three in rural areas, and for peoples with a population of less than 100 thousand, all restrictions on the number of children were lifted. The new rules were introduced in stages, by region.

In 2008, after the earthquake in Sichuan province, its authorities lifted the ban on parents who had lost children.

In 2013, families in which at least one of the spouses is the only child in the family received the right to a second child. These rules are also being introduced in stages.

In 2013, China's National Health and Family Planning Commission said the one-child policy had "prevented" the births of an estimated 400 million people. The government has collected about 2 trillion yuan ($314 million) in fines since 1980.

The negative consequences of the “one child” policy became evident in 2013, when a decline in the working-age population was recorded for the first time.

Now the country's population is 1.3 billion people, the growth is 0.5%. There are about 210 million people aged 60 years or older in China, accounting for 15.5% of the total. By 2020, the share of this group of people will reach 20%, by 2050 - 38%.