The likelihood of dying. What will you die from? what is the probability of dying in an accident or from AIDS

According to Rosstat, 1,826,125 people died in Russia in 2017 (8% less than in 2016). Of these, 1,673,384 died due to various diseases, and 152,741 due to external factors.

Dementia is killing the world...

According to the statistics of the World Health Organization, more than half of the deaths in the world (54%) are caused by 10 main causes. We list them in descending order.

In the first place by a wide margin - heart disease, in the second - strokes. Together they account for up to 25% of deaths, and for the last 15 years these diseases have been the leaders of the terrible list. On the third, fourth and fifth places - diseases of the respiratory tract (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer and cancer of the trachea and bronchi).

Diabetes ranks sixth, with more and more deaths from it every year (1.6 million in 2015 versus less than 1 million in 2000). So far, dementia (senile dementia) is in seventh place, but in just 5 years the number of deaths from it has doubled! Here it is, the consequence of the growth of human life expectancy. Next come infections of the lower respiratory tract (pneumonia, etc.). In ninth place are diarrheal diseases, although this figure has halved in 5 years. And in last place in the top 10 causes of death is tuberculosis, the number of deaths from which is also decreasing.

... And Russia - drunkenness

In Russia, as in the world as a whole, life expectancy is steadily increasing. For 15 years, the average citizen of our country began to live 8 years longer. According to the head Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation V-eronica Skvortsova, by 2024 we will live on average 76 years, and by 2030 - 80 years or more.

According to chief geriatrician of the Ministry of Health of Russia Olga Tkacheva, the increase in life expectancy in our country has been affected by the increase in the well-being of the population and improvements in health care and social assistance, as well as the promotion of a healthy lifestyle. It is no coincidence that the Ministry of Health proposes to allocate 2.8 billion rubles. from the federal budget to encourage citizens to join a healthy lifestyle. And if the efforts of the state bring the expected results, you see, someday we really will begin to die mainly from old age - about 100-120 years old ...

According to Rosstat

Probably many would answer the question “how would you prefer to die?” taken away - "to fall asleep and not wake up." Indeed, such a transition to another world can be called painless, and perhaps the most desirable, but ... Death is a natural process, the cause of death is not always natural. Accidents, traffic accidents and much more, which often does not give a healthy person a chance to survive, who in other circumstances could well live to old age and die a natural death. If we discard the causes of violent death, then what is the probability of dying in a dream and who is predisposed to this?

There are 24 hours in a day, and almost a third of them we spend sleeping. If you think logically, then the probability of dying in your sleep due to "natural causes" is 1 chance in 3. The indicator is quite high, but medical luminaries are more worried about something else. There are deaths in a dream that defy scientific explanation and to which there is still no answer. It's called Sudden and Unexplained Death Syndrome (SIDS).

It has been observed that a similar phenomenon is most often observed in adults, in particular among Asian men. No one knows what this is connected with and why exactly men of a certain age and origin are subject to such death. In the 80s, this reason was named the main one and even took the lead, taking it away from sudden infant mortality, as a result of which children under one year old died for unknown reasons.

In 1917, for the first time, information about SIDS was published in the medical literature, which occurred in the Philippines and was called bangungut. Subsequently, for unknown reasons, similar deaths began to be recorded in Japan, Singapore, Laos and throughout Asia. An interesting fact is that before death, a person does not experience any symptoms indicating malaise, disease, or any other factors. The person is in good health, and therefore his sudden death is simply a shock to his family and friends. According to eyewitnesses, the man first sleeps peacefully, and then suddenly begins to moan, it is not natural to snore, suffocate and die. Doctors call such signs agonal or dying. Even if the relatives managed to wake the unfortunate man, this did not save him from death. At a subsequent autopsy, the pathologists did not find any pathologies that could lead to death, including no signs of poisoning, allergies, or covert murder.

Such an unusual phenomenon did not pass by scientists and in 1992 they conducted a two-year study in Thailand, studying the causes and likelihood of death in a dream in other populations. They managed to find out the following:

All SIDS deaths were male;

Age from 20 to 49 years;

Nobody was overweight;

During the previous year, no serious illness was recorded - everyone was in good health;

Alcohol, smoking, drugs or other risk factors did not threaten their lives;

Throughout the day preceding death, they had normal performance;

After the onset of agony, the person died within a day;

Although death occurred in a dream, in 63% of cases it occurred in front of relatives or friends; in other cases, men were found in sleeping and resting positions;

In 94% of cases where witnesses were present, death occurred within one hour.

When asked about the likelihood of sudden death among family members of the deceased, it was found to be about 40%. In 19% of those who died, relatives of the man died the same death. It is also interesting that the occurrence of such cases of death is not the same throughout the year. The highest peak occurs from March to May, and very rarely from September to November. It gives the impression of a seasonal phenomenon.

The reasons why men die in Thailand have not yet been found, and therefore SIDS is considered a "potentially serious public health problem." Along with murders, poisonings, accidents and heart attacks, this syndrome claims the lives of about 3,000 men a year, between the ages of 20 and 50.

One of the possible causes of such death is considered to be a combination of physical and mental stresses, which for some reason trigger the SIDS mechanism. But not all scientists share this point of view, because they do not find an evidence base, and therefore the reasons remain unclear.

If you do not take into account SIDS, which, for unknown reasons, takes the lives of a certain group of the population, then what is the probability of dying in a dream in other people.

If death comes at the end of life's journey, then this is natural, but very often it threatens those who are still too early to visit the "bright tunnel". Such a threat is quite real for people who snore in their sleep. They do not take it seriously and believe that they do not snore, because they themselves do not hear it, but only learn from the words of loved ones.

Brief pauses in breathing during sleep are called sleep apnea. Those who experience such phenomena, the risk of sudden death increases by 2-3 times. It is precisely such stops that "lovers of snoring" are often prone to.

During sleep, a sleeping person stops breathing. Such moments can be observed up to 10 times in 1 hour! This leads to a slowing of the heart rate, the level of oxygen in the blood drops, blood pressure rises sharply and strongly, and adrenaline is released. All this can provoke a severe attack of arrhythmia, stroke or heart attack. At such moments, it is common for a person to wake up, but, unfortunately, this does not always happen.

You should not postpone a visit to the doctor if you have the following symptoms: you snore in your sleep; you fall asleep badly and sleep; you sweat a lot; you often get up at night to go to the toilet;

Do not rush to die - you still have a lot to do on earth!

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This is a question from Rude Austin of Petersham, New South Wales.

Each of us is in danger of dying every day. It doesn't matter how carefully we try to protect ourselves from danger, because much that we come into contact with can be fatal. Based on information provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and Les Krantz's book What Are Our Chances: Everything You Hoped For or Feared From A to Z, the likelihood of damage to our health in everyday life has been calculated.

If you were born in present-day Australia, you would probably live to about 75.7 years (a little more for women, a little less for men).

The chances that you will be struck by lightning today are 1:250,000,000, and that this will happen in your lifetime is 1:9100.

The chances of you being attacked by a shark today are astronomically small. There is a 1:1,000,000 chance that she will attack you during your lifetime. However, if this happens, you will only be able to escape 30% of the time.

The probability that you will die this year is 1:119. Cause of death can be heart disease (1:3), cancer (1:5), stroke (1:14), lung disease (1:29), pneumonia (1:32), diabetes (1:58) and liver disease (1:83).

The probability of dying in a car accident is 1:125. The chance of dying in a car crash on your next possible trip is about 1 in 4,000,000. The chance of dying from being hit by a car is highest at just 6 years old. At the age of six, about 1 in 12,500 boys and 1 in 25,000 girls are killed by cars.

The probability of crashing on the next plane flight is less than 1:4,600,000.

The probability of dying in<этом году при пожаре в собственном доме равна 1:100 000. того, что вы будете искалечены, - 1:1400. Вероятность пожара в вашем доме в этом году равна 1:200, и если такое произойдет - 3:10, что причиной пожара послужило курение. Если пожар все-таки случился, в 1 из 77 случаев вы получите травму или ожог.

The probability of dying in a fall is 1:200,000. If you are over 80, the probability increases to 1:2,000, and if you are over 90, it is 1:570.

The odds of you having a brain tumor this year is 1:25,000. But if that happens, the odds of it being malignant is 4:1. If for any reason you have to have a brain walk, your chances of survival are 33:1.

If you've had a heart attack or stroke, you have a 1:3 chance of making a full recovery, a 1:3 chance of permanent damage to your health, and a 1:3 chance of dying.

The chances of you committing suicide this year is 1:580. If you try to do this, the probability of success is 1:14. Over your lifetime, the chance of successfully killing yourself is 1:73. - The chance that you will need a heart transplant in your lifetime is 1:3000. If you need a heart donor, the chance of finding one is 1:1 and the chance of a successful operation is 7:10. If it was successful, then the chances that you will live another 5 years with a new heart are 1:1.

The chance of needing a liver transplant in a lifetime is 1:2000; the probability of a kidney transplant is 1:365; the probability of corneal transplantation is 1:95.

The probability that you will go blind or your vision will deteriorate dramatically is 7:1000.

You can start smoking 4 times out of 10. If you become addicted, then 7 out of 10 times you will try to quit smoking and 3 out of 10 times you will succeed.

The rate of skin cancer in Australia is the highest in the world. There is a 1 in 460 chance of being diagnosed this year. The likelihood that this year you will be diagnosed with a deadly form of skin cancer - malignant melanoma. - is equal to 1:6805, and the fact that this year you will die from it is 1:22407. If you are diagnosed with malignant melanoma, then the probability of dying from it is 1:3.

There is a 3:10 chance that you will have mental health problems at some point in your life.

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calculate, what mode of transport is the safest, not so easy. To build a beautiful and visual graph, at least two indicators are required - the number of dead or injured, as well as the number of people who use this type of transport. For air, rail and water transport, finding this data is not difficult, because thanks to tickets, each person is taken into account. But there are problems with road transport. Tracking the movement of the average Russian from work, to work and to the store is not possible - after all, no one passes registration to leave on the threshold of their home.

Our transport safety rating according to statistics for 2018 was compiled using various sources - from the data of the National Union of Insurers, which keep statistics on registered insured events from 2012 to the present, to data on traffic accidents on the Rosstat website.

> 200 deaths per 1.6 billion km

Although the number of motorcycle accidents has decreased by more than 70% since 2005, the motorcycle still remains one of the most dangerous modes of transport. According to statistics, it turns out that every 1.6 billion kilometers of the way are paid for by the lives of more than two hundred drivers and their passengers.

A motorcycle, like another two-wheeled vehicle - a bicycle - is characterized by increased vulnerability, so accidents involving motorcyclists are highly likely to end sadly. The reason is non-compliance with the rules of the road, and, surprisingly, the fundamental refusal of some drivers to use a helmet.

5.75 people per 1.6 billion km

In second place in the number of road accidents are private cars. In total, at least 5.75 people die in 1.6 billion kilometers of the way.

The reasons are both the unwillingness of drivers to comply with the rules of the road, and the condition of the roadway, the increased wear and tear of the vehicle fleet due to the crisis and the deterioration in the purchasing power of the population. And also (due to the increase in the average age of life) and the aging of drivers. All these factors together serve as a guarantee that road transport in Russia will not be safe for a long time to come.

9.4 deaths per 1 million passengers

Among air transport, the greatest danger to human life is not international, but intercity. Especially if a person in a helicopter is forced to go to those parts where even the notorious Makar prefers not to drive his calves. Perhaps this is the reason for such a high number of casualties among helicopter passengers. For every 1 million people, at least 9.4 are injured. You will have to fall from a great height, and, with a high degree of probability, the injuries will be incompatible with life.

5 dead per 1.5 billion km

Fixed-route taxis are by no means the safest form of transport in Russia. According to statistics, every 1.5 billion kilometers traveled by a minibus are paid for with five human lives. Among the reasons can be named both the work of drivers for wear and tear, and the design miscalculations of minibuses, the condition of the roads, the unwillingness to follow the rules of the road and drunk driving.

2.84 injured per 1 million transported

In 2018, there were several major accidents involving intercity buses, including a tragic accident in the Voronezh region, when two buses collided, five people died and 17 were injured. injured or killed at least 2.84. In total, in 2018, trips on intercity buses brought death to more than 600 passengers, and more than 13 thousand people were injured.

2.3 accidents per 1 million passengers

This category includes both international ships and domestic river carriers. In total, in 2018, 62 incidents occurred during sea and river travel, which ended tragically for five people. In general, according to NSS statistics, for every million passengers carried, there are 2.3 accidents.

Passengers on sea and river vessels are threatened not only by the elements of water, but also by fire. One of the most common causes of transport accidents is a sudden outbreak of fire on board a ship, usually caused by a faulty electrical wiring. This is not surprising, given that the Russian domestic fleet is in a deplorable state, and almost a third of the ships have celebrated 40 years of operation.

Probability of dying: 1:11,000,000

The safest transport in the world, however, in Russia it is not possible to obtain accurate statistics on the number of accidents per number of passengers. The data of the National Association of Insurers, on which we relied when assessing the risk of other modes of transport, are not available for them. The reason is the peculiarities of the insurance system in Russia; most air transport companies carry their passengers not only within the country, but also abroad. Therefore, they use international insurance policies.

That's why the plane is the safest mode of transport: according to statistics, the odds of dying in an accident on board an aircraft are 1 in 11 million. For comparison: the chances of being struck by lightning while walking in a thunderstorm are 16 times higher!

0.17 accidents per 1 million passengers

This category includes both intercity and international trains, as well as ordinary commuter trains. In general, for 2018, the statistics for Russian Railways look excellent - for almost the entire year, from January to November, only seven accidents were registered. Unfortunately, there were no deaths - one person died. In general, there are no more than 0.17 accidents per 1 million passengers.

More and more people prefer to use one of the safest modes of transport, and this cannot be explained by price alone. After all, for some destinations, the cost of plane and train tickets is almost equal. According to the Russian Railways website, in 2018, almost 8% more passengers were transported on long-distance trains than last year. And the growth in the number of passengers on electric trains amounted to almost 3%.

0.09 cases per million transported

Trolleybus is in second place in terms of safety among modes of transport in Russia. According to NSS statistics, there are only 0.09 accidents for every million passengers carried. Most of them are banal “stumbled and fell”.

The reasons for the low injury rate of a trolleybus are very simple - its volume and weight, as well as its low speed. In a collision, for example, with a car, the car will have much worse. And the passengers of the trolleybus will get off with light bruises.

0.04 affected out of 1,000,000 people

The safest transport according to statistics for 2018 in terms of the ratio of the number of accidents to the number of passengers. In total, out of one million arrivals from point A to point B, no more than 0.04 people are injured. In addition to safety, the tram has many advantages:

• it moves more smoothly than a car and even a trolleybus;
• less noisy;
• completely autonomous from traffic jams (unless, of course, motorists are trying to drive along the tracks);
• of all urban transport causes the least harm to the environment.

Unfortunately, trams are gradually disappearing from small towns in Russia. The reason is the limited local budget, which is simply unable to support a separate line. In total, over the past twenty years, the number of trams has decreased by more than 35%. Does this mean that the safest mode of transport will gradually disappear from the urban landscape?

Are you afraid to fly, preferring a car or a train? Absolutely in vain. Today we will determine the safest mode of transport based on dry statistics, which, as it turns out, have little to do with our fears.

It was not in vain that we started with fear, because it is they who clearly show the extent to which our emotions and speculation can prevail over facts and common sense. It is no coincidence that absolutely all sociological surveys give approximately the same result. People consider the train to be the safest mode of transport, the second place is the car, and the most dangerous, of course, is the plane. But it gives slightly different results.

In the world, there are several methods for calculating mortality in different modes of transport. The most accurate and common is the ratio of the dead per segment of the distance travelled. The starting point is considered to be 100 million miles (160 million kilometers).

True, based on these statistics, the safest mode of transport is space transport. Indeed, in its entire history, only three accidents have happened, and colossal distances have been covered. However, space tourism is a prospect, albeit not far away, but the future, so we will consider more common means of transportation.

Especially for you: airplane is the safest mode of transport The statistics confirm this 100%. 0.6 people die per 100 million miles. If we take 2014 as an example, there were 21 plane crashes all over the world. Of these, 10 are cargo ships, 11 are passenger ships. A total of 990 people died. This is less than the number of dead cyclists, and even less than the number of people who died in a year from the “hands” of donkeys.

In total, about 33 million flights were made during the year. On average, there is one accident per 1 million flights. It should be noted that most of them are in small private aircraft.

The probability of dying in a crash on a regular passenger flight is extremely small, 1/8,000,000. Even flying every day, it will take 21 millennia to get on that ill-fated flight that will crash.

The myth that there is no chance of survival in a plane crash also has little to do with reality. Aircraft are designed by people who know firsthand about aerodynamics and gravity. Therefore, in order to hit the ground on a grand scale from a height of 10,000 km, you need to try hard.

Let's go back to the statistics. Over the past 20-odd years, there have been about 500 aircraft accidents in the United States. The death toll in them was only 5% of the passengers on board at the time of the accident. Even if we ignore minor incidents and analyze only serious disasters with impacts on the ground, a fracture of the aircraft hull and fires, then the number of survivors in them is approximately 50%.

Railway transport

According to statistics, this is the safest form of land transport. The death rate due to train accidents is 0.9 passengers per 160 million km. Sounds incredible, given the speed at which ultra-modern trains travel. However, you can't argue with the numbers. At the same time, to a large extent, global statistics are spoiled by such countries as, where the concept of safety has a very specific meaning.

Automobile transport

For every 160 million kilometers travelled, 1.6 people die in road accidents. According to these statistics, the car can be safely attributed to the most dangerous form of transport. Every year, about 1.2 million people die on the world's roads, which is a thousand times more than in plane crashes. Thus, you are more likely to get into an accident on the way to the airport than to die on the plane itself.

Moreover, these figures apply only to four-wheeled vehicles. If we talk about motorcycles and mopeds, then there are many times more deaths: 42 people per 160 million km.

Crash landings: a video showing that even the most difficult situations have a way out.