Cold years 1645 1715. Are we on the verge of a mini ice age? (4 photos)

Astronomer Edward Walter Maunder (-), who discovered this phenomenon while studying archives of solar observations.

According to Maunder's calculations, only about 50 sunspots were observed during this period, instead of the usual 40-50 thousand. In this case, the vast majority of sunspots appeared in the southern hemisphere of the Sun. Subsequently, the fall in solar activity during the period indicated by Maunder was confirmed by the analysis of the content of carbon-14, as well as some other isotopes, such as beryllium-10, in glaciers and trees. Such an analysis made it possible to identify 18 minimums of solar activity over the past 8000 years, including the Spörer minimum (-) and the Dalton minimum (-). Also, according to some data, during the Maunder minimum, a decrease in the intensity of auroras and the speed of rotation of the Sun was observed.

The Maunder Minimum coincides in time with the coldest phase of the global climate cooling observed during the 14th-19th centuries (the so-called Little Ice Age). However, the direct connection between these two events is disputed - many scientists believe that the insignificant level of the fall in solar activity does not allow explaining global cooling only by this cause.

Interestingly, the period of the decrease in the activity of the Sun (1645-1715) coincided quite accurately with the period of the reign of the Sun King Louis XIV (1643-1715).

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An excerpt characterizing the Maunder Minimum

MOSCOW, June 24 - RIA Novosti. Long-term trends in solar activity indicate that the next lull in the life of the Sun could not only slow climate change, but cause marked decreases in the rate of increase in average annual temperatures in northern Eurasia and the northern corners of Canada and the United States, astronomers say in a paper published in the journal Nature Communications.

Solar activity is determined by the number of spots and flares on the Sun associated with changes in the magnetic field of the star. The cycle of solar activity - from maximum to maximum - lasts approximately 11 years. During the years of the active Sun, magnetic storms intensify and become more frequent, which can cause both technical problems and ailments in people, auroras are more often observed.

The longest known decline in solar activity was discovered at the end of the 19th century by astronomer Edward Maunder after studying the archives of observations of the Sun. The Maunder Low lasted from 1645 to 1715 and is associated with the "Little Ice Age" in Europe. The second such episode, called the "Dalton minimum", was recorded after the start of regular observations of solar activity from 1790 to 1830.

Richard Wood of the UK Met Office in Exeter and colleagues figured out that some sort of Maunder minimum could begin in the coming decades by studying the history of fluctuations in the strength of solar activity over the past few centuries.

As scientists explain, until recently, the Sun was in the phase of the so-called "Great Solar Maximum", during which the activity of the star was slightly higher than the long-term norm. However, the current 24th cycle, which began in January 2008, turned out to be record-breakingly weak, and at one time astronomers feared that the star was going into "hibernation."

Wood and his colleagues, concerned about such a scenario, decided to find out what kind of climate change would bring the onset of a semblance of a Maunder minimum or its "little brother". Using the data accumulated over the years of observing the Sun, the authors of the article created a computer climate model that took into account the onset of such a minimum.

As it turned out, the consequences of the "calm" on the Sun will be quite noticeable, although not in all regions of the globe. In Europe, for example, the rate of global warming will slow down, and average annual temperatures will rise by a degree less than expected today.

Most of all, they will manifest themselves in the subpolar regions of the northern hemisphere, where temperatures in certain regions of Western and Eastern Siberia, northern Canada and the United States will drop by 1.5 degrees Celsius. As a result, average annual temperatures in some parts of these regions will not only not rise, but will fall slightly compared to today. On the other hand, in general, this effect will not be enough to stop climate change and average annual temperatures will continue to rise, albeit with a "shift" back by 2-3 years.

It was named after the English astronomer Edward Walter Maunder (-), who discovered this phenomenon while studying the archives of solar observations.

According to Maunder's calculations, only about 50 sunspots were observed during this period, instead of the usual 40-50 thousand. In this case, the vast majority of sunspots appeared in the southern hemisphere of the Sun. Subsequently, the fall in solar activity during the period indicated by Maunder was confirmed by the analysis of the content of carbon-14, as well as some other isotopes, such as beryllium-10, in glaciers and trees. Such an analysis made it possible to identify 18 minimums of solar activity over the past 8000 years, including the Spörer minimum (-) and the Dalton minimum (-). Also, according to some data, during the Maunder minimum, a decrease in the intensity of auroras and the speed of rotation of the Sun was observed.

The Maunder Minimum coincides in time with the coldest phase of the global climate cooling observed during the 14th-19th centuries (the so-called Little Ice Age). However, the direct connection between these two events is disputed - many scientists believe that the insignificant level of the fall in solar activity does not allow explaining global cooling only by this cause.

Interestingly, the period of the decrease in the activity of the Sun (1645-1715) coincided quite accurately with the period of the reign of the Sun King Louis XIV (1643-1715).

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An excerpt characterizing the Maunder Minimum

In early August, Helen's case was completely decided, and she wrote a letter to her husband (who she thought was very fond of her) in which she informed him of her intention to marry NN and that she had entered into the one true religion and that she asks him to complete all the formalities necessary for the divorce, which the bearer of this letter will convey to him.
“Sur ce je prie Dieu, mon ami, de vous avoir sous sa sainte et puissante garde. Votre amie Helene.
[“Then I pray to God that you, my friend, be under his holy strong cover. Your friend Elena"]
This letter was brought to Pierre's house while he was on the Borodino field.

The second time, already at the end of the battle of Borodino, having escaped from the Raevsky battery, Pierre with crowds of soldiers headed along the ravine to Knyazkov, reached the dressing station and, seeing blood and hearing screams and groans, hastily moved on, getting mixed up in the crowds of soldiers.
One thing that Pierre now wanted with all the strength of his soul was to get out of those terrible impressions in which he lived that day as soon as possible, return to the usual conditions of life and fall asleep peacefully in the room on his bed. Only under ordinary conditions of life did he feel that he would be able to understand himself and all that he had seen and experienced. But these ordinary conditions of life were nowhere to be found.

Predictions for 2013 of increased solar activity and geomagnetic storms destroying communications and power systems turned out to be a false alarm. Instead, the current peak in the solar cycle is the weakest in a century. Suppressed solar activity has drawn controversial comparisons to the Maunder Minimum, which occurred between 1645 and 1715, when a prolonged absence of sunspots and other indicators of solar activity coincided with the coldest period of the millennium.

The comparisons have sparked a furious exchange between observers, who believe the planet may be on the verge of another cooling period, and scientists, who insist there is no evidence that temperatures are about to drop. To be fair, Russian scientists warned more than a decade ago that the Earth would enter a mini ice age.

New Scientist magazine blasted the beliefs of those who predicted a mini ice age by recently publishing an article about the surprising lack of sunspots this year with its bold declaration: "Those who hoped the sun could save us from climate change will be disappointed."

"The recent error in solar activity is not the beginning of a decade-long absence of sunspots and a drop in temperature that may have cooled the climate. Instead, it represents a shorter, less pronounced decline that occurs every century" ("The sluggish period of solar activity - this is not the start of a mini-ice age" July 12).

The unusually low number of sunspots in recent years "is not a sign that we are entering a Maunder Minimum," according to Julian Detom, a scientist at the High Altitude Observatory in Colorado.

But D. Detoma admitted that "we don't know how or why the Low started, so we can't predict the next one."

Many solar experts think the recession is related to a different phenomenon, the Gleissberg cycle, which predicted a period of weaker solar activity every century or so. If this turns out to be true, then the sun could remain unusually quiet throughout the mid-2020s.

But since scientists still do not understand why the Gleissberg cycle occurs, this statement is not definitive. The bottom line is that the sun has unusually calmed down and no one really knows why or how long it will last.

Solar flares and coronal ejections (CMEs), when billions of tons of solar plasma break off the surface of the sun and shoot out into space at speeds up to 3,000 kilometers per second, pose the biggest threat to power and communications systems.

Spots are less significant here because they are easy to count and correlate with flares, mass ejections and other signs of solar activity, astronomers and scientists have used them for centuries to monitor changes in the activity of the sun.

Careful observation showed the number of ups and downs in the number of sunspots is in a regular cycle that repeats every 11 years.

The changes in the amount of heat and light reaching our planet's surface as a result of the cycle are tiny. The total solar output reaching the surface changes by only 1.3 watts per square meter (0.1 percent) between the maximum and minimum phases of the cycle.

But even this change has profound effects on climate and weather. Rainfall, cloud formation and river flooding are all strongly related to the 11 year cycle of the sun.

The impact is much less than the warming of the planet associated with artificial climate change. Solar activity cannot explain long-term trends in global temperatures, such as those associated with global warming. But it can have a noticeable impact over a shorter time scale.

Information source http://macedoniaonline.eu/content/view/23966/24/

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Maunder Minimum (Maunder minimum; English Maunder Minimum) - a period of long-term reduction in the number of sunspots from about 1645 to 1715. It was named after the English astronomer Edward Walter Maunder (1851-1928), who discovered this phenomenon while studying archives of solar observations.

According to Maunder's calculations, only about 50 sunspots were observed during this period, instead of the usual 40-50 thousand. In this case, the vast majority of sunspots appeared in the southern hemisphere of the Sun. Subsequently, the fall in solar activity during the period indicated by Maunder was confirmed by an analysis of the content of carbon-14, as well as some other isotopes, such as beryllium-10, in glaciers and trees. Such an analysis made it possible to identify 18 minima of solar activity over the past 8000 years, including the Spörer minimum (1450-1540) and Dalton minimum(1790-1820). Also, according to some data, during the Maunder minimum, a decrease in the intensity of auroras and the speed of rotation of the Sun was observed.

The Maunder Minimum coincides in time with the coldest phase of the global cooling of the climate, which was noted during the 14th-19th centuries (the so-called Little Ice Age). However, the direct connection between these two events is disputed - many scientists believe that the insignificant level of the fall in solar activity does not allow explaining global cooling only by this cause.

Interestingly, the period of the decrease in the activity of the Sun (1645-1715) coincided quite accurately with the period of the reign of the Sun King Louis XIV (1643-1715).

Its action does not depend on human activity. Despite the fact that solar radiation is characterized by amazing constancy, some fluctuations were still revealed, namely, 11-year and 24-year cycles of solar activity were detected. But besides them, there are other fluctuations, which are still little studied. Among them is the so-called Maunder minimum (Maunder minimum).

Influence of solar activity on climate

Solar activity has a noticeable effect on the climate for relatively short periods of time. As a result, climatic fluctuations occur. With an increase in solar activity, the influx of short-wave ultraviolet radiation and cosmic particles increases. The total amount of solar energy reaching the Earth is also slightly increasing. More significant may be the indirect impact of the increase in solar activity on the climate through an increase in the number of high cirrus clouds, which enhance the greenhouse effect.

The connection between solar activity and climate has been confirmed in the course of various observations and studies. A relationship has also been established between the state of the sun and the number of wars, epidemics, accidents and accidents.

Peculiarities of the Maunder minimum of solar activity

The Maunder Minimum is a deep decline in solar activity that occurred from 1645 to 1715. During the Maunder Minimum, the number of sunspots decreased many times over, and the magnetic field of the sun weakened. Instead of the normal 50 thousand, only 50 spots were observed.

The Maunder minimum does not fit into the normal solar cycle and has a much longer duration. Its beginning was very abrupt, and the end, on the contrary, was gradual. The deep phase of the minimum occurred in 1645-1700.

During the minimum, the intensity of auroras and the speed of rotation of the Sun around its axis decreased significantly.

Climatic features of the period

The Maunder Minimum is considered the coldest epoch in modern human history. It is the bottom of the Little Ice Age. At the same time, many scientists consider the fall in solar activity to be an insufficient factor for serious climate change. Frequent volcanic eruptions and weakening ocean circulation are also cited as reasons for the cooling. Nevertheless, during this period, the global temperature dropped by about half a degree, and in winter it became colder by 1.0-1.5 o C.

Low temperatures led to snowfall and frost during the summer months, and in winter, rivers such as the Thames and Danube were covered with strong ice, making them suitable for fairs and sledding. In some years, even the Bosporus froze, and the usually warm Adriatic Sea was partially covered with ice.

In France and Germany, frosts were all winter, there were even cases of birds freezing in flight. The annals contain records of the terrible consequences of severe frosts in Russia: a large number of people died from frostbite, many had their ears and limbs frozen, horses' skins burst, and bark cracked on trees. As in Europe, the death of birds on the fly was noted. But at the same time, not every winter was so severe.

Glaciers were rapidly advancing all over the world, and the inhabitants of Greenland were forced to leave their lands and move to the mainland.

Economic consequences

The Maunder minimum temperature had a negative impact on agriculture and led to numerous crop failures and famine. In Russia, this was the era of the reign of Peter 1. Due to low temperatures, the trees formed denser wood. This circumstance had a positive effect on the work of the famous violinist Antonio Stradivari, who made violins from spruce.

Could something like this happen again in the near future?

Some scientists believe that changes in the Sun in recent years indicate the possibility of a repeat of the events of the Maunder Minimum in the coming decades. Indeed, the last solar cycle was the weakest in many decades. However, nothing similar to the events of that time has been observed so far. In addition, even if such a minimum is repeated, it will rather be for the benefit of mankind, since it will make it possible to compensate for some of the expected global warming.

At the same time, according to some forecasts, the decrease in solar activity will be combined with an increase in the frequency of volcanic eruptions, which has been rather low over the past 100 years. If this happens, then a deeper drop in temperatures is possible, adverse consequences for the global economy and other negative consequences.

But for now, the situation is quite different. There is a rapid increase in global temperature, which does not fit into such scenarios, making them extremely unlikely.